Joba...Future Ace or Future Closer?

Well, unless you've been living under a rock or out of the tri-state area, you probably haven't heard any number of sportscasters debate the future of Joba Chamberlain. I've watched Steve Phillips, Joe Morgan, Joe Buck, Mike Francesa, every baseball tonight anchor not named Winfield and hell I think John Madden even chimed in (the team who let's up the fewest runs, may just win this game)...They all have their opinion and we all know how they feel. EVERY single one of them wants Joba (or Jobber if your Mike Francesa) in the bullpen. The Yankees in their minds, are a better team with Joba coming out for the 8th inning.

Let me be the first to loudly and emphatically DISAGREE !!!!!!!!!!

I've gotten into this argument with my parents, my brother, basically anybody I know not named Matt Lorenzo, wants to see Joba in the bullpen.

Before I do my typical banter of spouting off countless statistics that disprove any theory of Joba being the Yankees set-up man, let me just ask you, my reading public (well, is it considered a "reading public" when I can count my readers on one hand and still have a thumb and a pinky left?), which is more valuable to a team? A pitcher who throws 70 innings over 60 games, who is coming into the middle of a game? Or , a pitcher who throws 200 innings spanned over 30 games, where the longer he pitches, the better chance your team has to win?

Obviously, I know you will say that "Joba is more valuable to the Yankees in the bullpen, because that's where their need is"

Now, I'm the first one to tell you that the Yankees bullpen is terrible. I was saying it way back in November, December, January and February, when every media member in New York was fawning all over the young "studs" in the Yankees bullpen. Jose Veras, Edwar Ramirez, Damaso Marte, they sound like the guys who washed my car last week. No disrespect to any of those guys, but would you be able to pick them out of a crowd of people? Exactly. Neither can their wives.

Let's for argument sake say the Yankees moved Joba Chamberlain out of the rotation and moved him into the bullpen. Alright, so you "solved" the quandary of who pitches the 8th inning every night. Now, here's the problem you just caused. Who takes Joba's spot in the rotation? Chien-Ming Wang? Have you seen him pitch this year? I've got a little clue for you. That 20.50 next to his name isn't exactly his salary this year, that would be the amount of runs he allows per game. What makes anyone (Wang included) think he'll all of a sudden be the pitcher who won 19 games in consecutive years? It's encouraging to see Wang pitch two consecutive scoreless innings against the Rangers the other night, but (and I'm guilty of this too) let's not get too excited over 6 outs against the bottom of the order of a team down by 7 runs. It's a great sign, yes, but he hasn't proven he can do it consistently for long periods of time yet.

Which leads me into the next point. You're thinking "Joba only goes 4 or 5 innings a start, throws a ton of pitches and burns out our bullpen". Well, yes, you're right. It can be absolutely maddening to watch Chamberlain pitch at times. He'll quickly get ahead of a batter 0 - 2 and then proceed to waste 3 consecutive pitches either low and away to a righty, or up and away to a lefty, trying to get them to chase. That's currently the biggest problem that Joba faces. He's trying too hard to consciously be a "pitcher", who's not trying to be a "flamethrower." He's overanalyzing every at bat. Rather than just challenge the hitters when you get ahead in the count, he nibbles on the corners too much and is seemingly always in a full count, which gives the hitter an easy choice. A) Joba is going to try and blow a fastball by you, B) he's going back to the well and throwing a righty a down and away slider or C) a 12 to 6 curveball to a left handed batter.

It's something that he will learn over time. People sometimes fail to realize that he's only 23 years old. What were you doing when you were 23 years old? I can tell you what I'm doing as a 23 year old, I'm writing about somebody 9 months older than me, who'll make more money than I'll ever see in my life and he gets to pretend he likes Alex Rodriguez. I WANT THAT LIFE! But, that's neither here nor there.

Look, I know how great Joba was in the bullpen two years ago. He was a rock-star. The home crowd loved him, the opposing crowd hated him. He feasted off that energy and gave it right back with jubilant fist pumps, 100mph fastballs and filthy sliders in the dirt that everybody chased. I get that. I saw it, I loved it, I lost my voice cheering for it.

And I know he isn't the same pitcher he was two years ago. He's lost a little on his fastball. Instead of being consistently 97 - 98 and being able to dial it up to 100 when he needed, he's currently sitting at 93 - 94 and can sometimes reach back and hit 96 on the gun when he wants.

His slider isn't as sharp anymore because he doesn't need to throw it as much. When he was coming out of the bullpen he was strictly a two pitch pitcher. You knew what was coming and do your best hitting it. You're getting two 99mph fastballs and then the slider low and away. You try not to chase it, but you swing and miss, Joba pumps his fist, Posada pumps his fist, I pump my fist and somewhere Joe Buck shakes his head disapprovingly.

As a starter, Joba has to refine his secondary pitches. The curveball and the changeup are even more important to his success than his slider ever could be. You don't let a guy who possesses 4-plus pitches according to scouts, to toil away in the bullpen, only pitching every other day and refining two of them. You can't waste that sort of talent.

Right now you're going to make the "Mariano Rivera was a starter and the Yankees moved him to the bullpen and he's the greatest closer of all-time" argument. Well, I'll coin a phrase that Mike Francesa used yesterday on his show (if you've never seen it, god bless your eardrums), to describe Mariano Rivera's career as a starting pitcher:

ATROCIOUS! ABSOLUTELY ATROCIUS! DO YOU SEE WHAT HIS WHIP WAS? ATROCIOUS (Note: to really understand the emphasis on the yelling, picture me waving my arms like a gorilla, foaming at the mouth like a rabid pitbull and having my cheeks jiggle like a bowl full of jello, all the while hooking up a diet coke into an IV and having a constipated look on my face)

Scary thought, isn't it? I can hear him yelling right now in my mind. Actually, never mind, that's not in my mind. "The Best of Mike Francesa" is currently on the YES network. And guess what he's yelling about?!?! Yep, you guessed it! Joba Chamberlain to the bullpen! God, I can't make this stuff up.

Alright, back to our regularly scheduled programming. Joba Chamberlain isn't going to the bullpen anytime soon. The Yankees foresee, project, hope, wish and dream that Joba Chamberlain can be a 200 inning pitcher for them next season. The only question remaining is, can he stay healthy. If he stays healthy, he'll reach his innings plateau of 150. Once he gets around that mark, it wouldn't surprise me if the Yankees moved Joba to the bullpen just for the postseason, in order to keep his arm fresh and around a certain threshold of innings. Moving him to the bullpen at the end of May, simply because our bullpen is terrible, is a completely shortsighted move.

You know that great 9 game winning streak the Yankees had for a week and a half? You know why our bullpen pitched so great? Because our starting pitchers continually went 6+ innings. If your starting pitchers give you length, it shortens up the game for the bullpen. That way, you see a whole lot less of Jose Veras and a whole lot more of Mariano Rivera. In a perfect world, our starter will go 7+ innings, and the rest will be up to Rivera. But, we don't live in a perfect world. If we did, I'd be employed by ESPN and showcased on Baseball Tonight, instead of Eric Young and his broken sentences and incoherent babbling. Once again, that's a story for another time.

Alright, I think we've reached the portion of this blog where I start showing off my research and analysis skills (brought to you by the wonderful folks of Western Connecticut State University. See mom, I'm using that Bachelors Degree in History right now by exemplifying my superb talent for researching a topic and combing through countless information to get to the root of what I'm after! HA! And you thought I couldn't put it towards anything worthwhile!)

I'm going to give you a list of the statistics for 6 different pitchers. I'll list off their win - loss record, earned run average, innings pitched, hits allowed, walks, strikeouts and strikeouts per 9 innings Each of these stats is for the first 20 starts of their professional careers. This is why you can't judge a person too early on in their career and must give them time to develop:

Player A: 4 - 10 record, 4.50 ERA, 124 innings pitched, 140 hits allowed, 53 walks, 91 strikeouts and 6.6 strikeouts per 9 innings.

Any idea who player A is? It's hall of famer Bob Gibson

Player B: 6 - 8 record, 3.43 ERA, 110.1 innings pitched, 110 hits allowed, 62 walks, 83 strikeouts and 6.78 strikeouts per 9 innings.

Give up on who Player B might be? That's Sandy Koufax

Player C: 7 - 6 record, 3.91 ERA, 117.2 innings pitched, 104 hits allowed, 66 walks, 95 strikeouts and 7.29 strikeouts per 9 innings.

Any clue? That would be future hall of famer and current big leaguer Randy Johnson

Player D: 6 - 6 record, 4.20 ERA, 111.2 innings pitched, 118 hits allowed, 54 walks, 70 strikeouts and 5.66 strikeouts per 9 innings.

Did you get this one right? No? Well, that's current Blue Jays ace Roy Halladay

Player E: 1 - 3 record, 5.32 ERA, 103.1 innings pitched, 104 hits allowed, 43 walks, 105 strikeouts and 9.17 strikeouts per 9 innings.

Care to venture a guess? That would be the Mets ace and arguably the best pitcher in the National League, Johan Santana

Player F: 5 - 2 record, 3.18 ERA, 113.2 innings pitched, 106 hits allowed, 50 walks, 120 strikeouts and 9.54 strikeouts per 9 innings.

Hmm, who could this be? That's the guy you want to throw in the bullpen, Joba Chamberlain

See my point? Don't you think those other 5 guys respective teams are happy they didn't give up on their struggling young pitchers? In fact, Roy Halladay was so lost on the mound when he was 23 years old in the year 2000, the Blue Jays sent him all the way back down to the lowest level of the minor leagues and made him earn his way back up.

Johan Santana was a Houston Astros castoff, turned Minnesota Twins long reliever and spot starter. Finally refined the way he threw the ball and became the biggest sensation in the American League in the year 2002.

Don't you think it'd be a little premature to give up on Joba Chamberlain as a starter? He's only had 21 professional starts at the major league level. He was an absolute star out of the bullpen, for 2 months. Let him get his feet wet pitching at the major league level in the starting rotation before we write him off entirely and consider him a failed starter.

Mike Francesa said yesterday that Joba Chamberlain as a reliever was lights out and the best in the business, but as a starter he isn't electrifying. Well, I can tell you the list of starters who are electrifying is extremely short. My list only has one name on it and that's Tim Lincecum. Joba Chamberlain has the chance to be that good. But, we'll never know if he can be, unless he's given every opportunity to do so. That's what the Yankees are doing. They're throwing him out there every 5th day and giving him a chance. One day you'll love him, the next day you'll want to strangle him. What young kid doesn't evoke that sort of emotion out of you? (If you're related to me, you're nodding in agreement right now)

I doubt this article has in any way skewed your opinion on whether or not Joba should continue starting. But, I ask you this. Be patient. I implore you to remain patient with him. Sometimes he will absolutely drive you crazy with his pitch counts and inability to throw strikes. But, I promise you. There's going to be a start in the near future where he puts it all together. He'll throw 7 innings, allow 2 hits and strike out 12. And you'll think to yourself "wow, that was a masterpiece."

The pieces are all there folks. It's just a matter of time before the kid puts the rest of the puzzle together. And when he does, we're all going to see something special.

Afterall, he's only 23. And much like myself, he hasn't even scratched the surface on his potential yet.

Until next time....

He's baaaaaaack

That's right, I'm back. Did you all miss me? You're probably wondering where I've been the past 6 weeks, well it's very simple. While I may have told most of you that I was on a ranting hiatus because I was focusing on finishing school and graduating (Which was a success by the way, you're now reading the rants of an accomplished college graduate, thank you), in actuality I didn't stop blogging because of that. In reality, much like Manny Ramirez, I was suspended for testing positive for a performance enhancing drug. (I'm kidding, I'm kidding).

All joking aside, it's good to be back. The pressure of school is behind me for the time being and only the pressures of finding a job in this terrible economy lie ahead. Well, now that I've entirely just bummed myself out, I'm going to smash my head on the keyboard for a second to vent the unemployed frustrations out of my body....


(10 minutes later.....)


Alright, since that's out of my system now, it's time to get down to business. I've spent much of the last few days thinking what my first blog back should be about (Okay, that's a lie, I've spent the last few days in an alcohol induced celebratory coma, but maybe I had a few blog dreams) The one story that's ongoing in Major League Baseball right now is what in the holy hell is wrong with David Ortiz? Is it his wrist? Is it his knee? Is it his expanding waist line? Has he run out of clean syringes to inject himself with? The questions are endless for what is exactly plaguing the former most feared slugger in the American League.

But, I would just like to say "I told you so." For at least 2 and a half years now I've said time and time again that Ortiz is nothing more than an overweight hitter with marginal skill who was boosted to elite status by having a hall of fame player batting behind him; Manny Ramirez. Long before David Ortiz became "Big Papi", I spouted off from the mountain tops that he was merely riding the success that Manny Ramirez created for him. Well, guess what? Turns out I was right. As always, I've got the stats to prove it!

The three season period of 2004 - 2006 saw David Ortiz catapult himself into the category of "most feared home run hitter in baseball." In the 9th inning of any tied game, who was the one hitter no team wanted to face? It was David Ortiz. I can't tell you how often he would hit a game-tying or game-winning home run against the Yankees, or any other team that tried pitching to him. He was the definition of clutch.

In that 3 year period, Ortiz played an average of 153 games per season, averaging the numbers .315, 47 home runs and 141 runs batted in. Those numbers are absolutely astounding.

But, those were also the only years of Ortiz's career where he has played over 150 games. 2009 is now the 13th year that 'Big Papi' has been on a Major League Baseball roster, and he's only played 150+ games a total of 3 times. He's only played above 130 games 5 times.

All the talk about whether David Ortiz is "finished", or "losing his bat speed", etc, is all over blown. The simple fact is. He is who we thought he was. Before he came to Boston he was a left handed nobody hitter with the propensity to strike out a ton and couldn't play in the field if his life depended on it.

Then he was introduced to his partner in crime, Manny Ramirez and suddenly his career took off. That's no small coincidence.

Bear in mind when David Ortiz was on the Minnesota Twins BEFORE he was paired up with Manny Ramirez, he played in a total of 455 games, batting .266 with 58 home runs and 238 runs batted in. In essence he averaged a home run every 7.8 games, and a run batted practically every 2 games. If you extrapolate those averages out over the course of a 162 game season, his PRE-MANNY numbers would see him hit around .266 with 20 home runs and 85 runs batted in. Basically, he's a lot less Hercules and a whole lot more the fat Jose Guillen.

Now, after he signed with the Boston Red Sox and started hitting 3rd in the Boston order in front of Manny Ramirez, over the next 6 seasons Ortiz played a total of 698 games, hitting .294 with a Herculean 199 home runs and 624 runs batted in. Basically, with Manny Ramirez protecting him in the lineup, he averaged a home run every 3.5 games and a run batted in nearly every game. If his statistics are extrapolated and averaged out over the course of a 162 game season, his numbers WITH-MANNY saw him hit .294 with 46 home runs and 145 runs batted in. That's a man who should be feared.

But, once Manny Ramirez was traded to the Dodgers, it's been all down hill for the big man ever since. In the time that Manny was traded to Los Angeles last July 31st, Ortiz has played in 92 games, a little more than half a season. In that time, Ortiz has hit .234 with 10 home runs and 64 runs batted in. If that pace keeps up, over the course of a 162 game season, Ortiz would bat below .240 with 17 home runs and 112 runs batted in. Basically, his post-Manny life is seeing him turn into a fat Jason Giambi without the On-base percentage.

You can say that Ortiz has an injured wrist that hasn't healed since last year, or that he has a bad knee, or whatever other excuse you can make for him. The bottom line is, he's playing like he did when he was on Minnesota. There is a reason why the Twins let him go. THIS IS THE PLAYER HE IS! His player biography of his time with the Twins states "Ortiz's time with the Twins will be looked back upon as a series of injuries and inconsistency at the plate. Ortiz suffered wrist injuries in both 1998 and 2001."

Hmm, does that sound familiar? Isn't that what's been plaguing Ortiz for the past season and a half? Injuries and inconsistencies? It seems to me that the David Ortiz from 2004 to 2006 was the statistical anomaly and that the David Ortiz from 1997 - 2002 and from 2008 until now is the real David Ortiz.

Think of him what you may. But, Manny Ramirez should be credited with any success David Ortiz has attained. Without Manny Ramirez, David Ortiz would still be known as David Arias (no clue what I'm talking about? Google it. You'll laugh).

It's because of Manny Ramirez that David Ortiz will be remembered as a slugger who once was. The David Ortiz from 3 years ago is long gone. The career of David Ortiz will finish the way it began 12 years ago in Minnesota; frustrated, unhappy and on the bench

He is who we thought he was

Until next time...It's good to be back