Predictions for the 2010 Baseball Season

With the 2010 Major League Baseball season getting underway this week, I thought it’d be a good idea to try and make up for last years debacle of predictions and give it another go. In case you forgot (or just never read it), last year the 8 teams I had making the playoffs were the; Braves, Cubs, Dodgers, Giants, Yankees, Red Sox, Indians and Rangers. Hmm, well, uh, in my defense, at least I had the Yankees in the World Series? (just because I had the Cubs beating them doesn’t matter!). The major award winners I picked last year were: Albert Pujols as the National League Most Valuable Player (I said he’d hit .330 with 38 homers and 130 runs batted in. Well, I was pretty spot on with the average and RBI, but didn’t give him enough homeruns!), Tim Lincecum as the National League Cy Young Winner, Jordan Zimmermann as the Rookie of the Year, Miguel Cabrera as American League Most Valuable Player, Zach Greinke and Roy Halladay (in a tie) for Cy Young Award and Ricky Romero as the Rookie of the Year.

In my defense, I did correctly pick Pujols, Lincecum and Greinke! But, I missed the boat on Miguel Cabrera (who finished 4th), Jordan Zimmermann and Ricky Romero (who didn’t even finish among the top 10, respectively). What does this tell you? That I can pick the obvious winners, but have no idea about anything else. Which is why I’m going for broke this year and doing it again!

Since the New York Yankees won the World Series last year, I’ll start off with the National League again this season (maybe I’m a little superstitious).

National League East

Philadelphia Phillies: 99 - 63
Atlanta Braves: 94 - 68
Florida Marlins: 89 - 73
New York Mets: 81 - 81
Washington Nationals: 74 - 88


It’s really hard to pick against the Phillies from winning this division again. They subtracted Cliff Lee from their rotation and added Roy Halladay; that’s a step up, even from as good as Lee was last season. The only question marks for the Phillies are if Cole Hamels can rebound from a terrible season last year and if Brad Lidge has anything left in the tank. If both of those questions are answered positively, then the Phillies are prime to make another run deep into October.

The Atlanta Braves are fast becoming one of my favorite teams that I think could do some serious damage in the post-season (if they get there). In the off-season they traded their ace Javier Vazquez back to the Yankees, but get a fully healthy Tim Hudson and a complete season out of phenom Tommy Hanson. Couple that with the upgrades in the outfield with Melky Cabrera and rookie sensation Jason Heyward and I think the Braves are going to a team to be reckoned with this season.

The Florida Marlins narrowly missed the playoffs last year and should be primed for a breakout season under manager Fredi Gonzalez, but the mounting pressures that their delusional owner is putting on the team, means they won’t hold up to his standards and kiss Fredi Gonzalez’s job good-bye come mid-July.

If you remember, last year I was extremely critical of the New York Mets and bashed them at every chance I got. Well, consider this a flashback, because it’s the same old story. The Mets did nothing and I mean nothing to improve their ballclub from last season. Sure, the Mets can blame their lack of wins last season on the injuries, but even when healthy, this team, as it’s built is not good enough to win 85 games, let alone a division. Mark my words, by the 2nd week of August, the Mets are going to be staring up at the aforementioned three teams in the standings and everybody will be left wondering what happened. Well, I’ll tell you what happened; the Mets have an idiot General Manager who should have been fired two years ago. Stay Classy Metropolitans.

The Nationals are getting better, but they’re still the worst team in this division. They’re slowly, but surely taking the right steps in surrounding Ryan Zimmerman with talent and are a few years away from contending.

National League Central

St. Louis Cardinals: 95 - 67
Cincinnati Reds: 88 - 74
Chicago Cubs: 84 - 78
Milwaukee Brewers: 77 - 85
Pittsburgh Pirates: 72 - 90
Houston Astros: 71 - 91

Once again, the National League Central is a tough division to predict. The Cardinals have by far the best offense (anchored by Albert Pujols and Matt Holliday) and most stable starting rotation, but have a shaky bullpen. The Reds are going to be a team that surprises a lot of people, but not me, I think they can be in contention right up until the end of the season, thanks in large part due to the eventual emergence of Aroldis Chapman who will show that despite his age, he’s the real deal. The Cubs are going to disappoint again, simple as that. They blamed their shortcomings on Milton Bradley’s presence in their clubhouse last year, well, who’s to blame when the same failures happen this year, now that he’s gone? Bottom line, they’re the Mets of the NL Central.


National League West

Colorado Rockies: 96 - 66
San Francisco Giants: 91 - 71
Los Angeles Dodgers: 83 - 79
San Diego Padres: 78 - 84
Arizona Diamondbacks: 72 - 90


I’m extremely high on the Rockies. With the emergence as Ubaldo Jimenez as a front of the rotation starter and the hopeful return to health for Jeff Francis, the Rockies are primed to make a big splash this season and continue where they left off last season after Jim Tracy took over as manager. Their offense is high powered with Troy Tulowitzki finally beginning to live up to his promise and potential. The real question marks the Rockies have to answer are in their bullpen; can Huston Street stay healthy enough to close games? I’d hedge my bets and say yes, because the Rockies are the team to beat here.

The Giants have Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum, which would make them the favorites to win any playoff series. The problem is, can they get to the playoffs? Aside from Cain and Lincecum, I don’t think Jonathan Sanchez has enough talent to throw strikes to give them another solid starter. Nor does their offense really strike me as an imposing force. Kung Fu Panda (terrific nickname) Pablo Sandoval is terrific, but they have too much age and too many guys who can only move base to base at a very slow pace. I see them having a hard time scoring runs consistently, so even with the dynamic duo of Lince-Cain, I don’t see it translating into enough W’s to push them over the hump.
Let me explain how the Dodgers season is going to turn out; Joe Torre announced that Vicente Padilla would be his opening day starter. (Yep, Vicente Padilla. I know, I thought he was playing in the Mexican Leagues somewhere too. But no, he’s the Dodgers opening day starter.) Also, they haven’t improved their ball club even remotely over last season, where they were completely underwhelming in the playoffs. So, to put it lightly, it’s no steps forward, and two steps back for them.
The Padres are going to be bad, but not as bad as the Diamondbacks. D-Backs ace Brandon Webb has stopped throwing in his rehab from his shoulder injury and there’s no timetable for his return. That is a major red flag. When you also factor in the D-Backs are starting Ian “I may have let up 12 runs but I still made my pitches” Kennedy at the back end of their rotation with Rodrigo Lopez and I’m calling shenanigans. (But, Arizona will shatter the record for number of players with funny names. Not only are they sporting an Augie Ojeda, but they’ve got a Gerardo Parra and a Rusty Ryal. If their bullpen is decent and Blaine Boyer and Esmerling Vasquez stick with the big club, all bets are off!)

National League Most Valuable Player: Honestly, they should rename this award after Albert Pujols. It’s his every year until he decides he doesn’t want it anymore. Why do they even bother pitching to him? He isn’t human. He’s a cyborg. I won’t even make steroid jokes about him, because even steroids wouldn’t help somebody this much. Chalk up another .330, 45 and 140 season for him and call it a day.

National League Cy Young Winner: Tim Lincecum has won two Cy Young Awards and he hasn’t even hit the prime of his career yet. People keep saying he’s going to break down with the violent motion of his delivery and sure, he could. But, I also could win the lottery tomorrow, doesn’t mean I will though. That being said, Lincecum won’t win it this year. I’m high on the purple and black in Colorado and this award goes to Ubaldo Jimenez. 19 – 7, 2.92 era and 210 strikeouts. Money in the bank. (watch him go 7 – 19 with a 5.00 era and I’ll laugh and retire)

National League Rookie of the Year: Jason Heyward; Braves. He’s 20 years old and is the size of a middle linebacker. He’s dynamic, he’s exciting. He’s my first non-Yankee man-crush since Danny Tanner (shut up, Bob Saget is a genius). There’ll be a ton of ups and downs for him, he’ll strike out a ton and it won’t be long until the league figures out he can’t hit a breaking ball, but he’ll still manage .280 with 22 homers and 80 rbi. Just wait and see.

American League East

Boston Red Sox: 102 - 60
New York Yankees: 99 - 63
Tampa Bay Rays: 91 - 71
Baltimore Orioles: 82 - 80
Toronto Blue Jays: 70 - 92

The Orioles and Blue Jays won’t be in the division race discussion once the calendar turns to June. Toronto traded away their best player and the only guy who owned the Yankees, literally every time he pitched. That’s going to hurt a lot and it’s going to show in the standings, as well as in the stands. Good luck filling the Rogers Centre this season, really. The Orioles have made a ton of additions to their team that I like; Garrett Atkins, Miguel Tejada and Kevin Millwood, specifically. But, it isn’t enough to make up any considerable distance on the three headed monster of the AL East that is the Yank-Ray-Sox.

You could literally flip a coin to decide which team of the Red Sox, Yankees and Rays will win the division, who will be the wildcard and who will be the team left out of the party. There’s arguments as to why each team could win the division, just like there’s an argument why they won’t. This season, the coin flips towards Boston. Adding John Lackey, Mike Cameron, Marco Scutaro and Adrian Beltre is going to sincerely help. The Red Sox had one of the worst defenses in baseball last season and now they will boast one of the best. For the next 3 or 4 years the Red Sox can throw an ace on the mound almost nightly (Beckett, Lester, Lackey and Buchholz). The only and I mean only problem with Boston is their loyalty to David Ortiz. That is going to be the Achilles heel of the team. Terry Francona is loyal to a fault and he won’t take Ortiz out of the lineup when he starts showing signs of further decline (my approximation will be 9:13PM, 2nd inning of the first game of the season). Ortiz is done, it’s over, finished. He’s old, he’s fat, he’s slow and he’s probably 43 years old. Call it a career. He had a nice 5 year run when he was the most feared hitter in the American League. Now he’ll be the most feared guy in the buffet line.

I know, I know, the Yankees won the World Series and I’m showing them no respect. But, give me a break. I bleed the pinstripes through and through and I’m no fool. The Red Sox have vastly improved their team and we vastly improved our pitching and defense too (adding Curtis Granderson and Javier Vazquez). But, it was at the expense of our offense. (sorry but Nick Johnson + Curtis Granderson does NOT = Hideki Matsui and Johnny Damon). Does this mean I think the Yankees are done? Hell no, I just don’t think they’re going to win the division. That’s not a knock on them, at all, and I’ll even go one step further; even with a 2nd place finish in the AL East, they’re still the team to beat.

The Rays will benefit from having a full year in the rotation from David Price, as well as boasting the new most feared hitter in the American League Evan Longoria as the anchor of their lineup. They have a legitimate closer in Rafael Soriano, but that’s about it. What have you done for me lately, Tampa? You still have the Albatross known as Pat “don’t call me the bat” Burrell as your Designated Hitter, Carlos Pena last season looked more like the guy that no team wanted a few years ago, than the hitter he was in 2008. BJ Upton is liable to throw a tantrum and start crying after he strikes out and you can’t afford to keep Carl Crawford beyond this season. Add that to the fact that the Rays owner said next season their payroll will be about $15 million less and this team has “being blown up at mid-season and traded for assorted crap” written all over it.

American League Central

Minnesota Twins: 94 - 68
Detroit Tigers: 88 - 74
Chicago White Sox: 81 - 81
Kansas City Royals: 73 - 89
Cleveland Indians: 66 – 96

I could not have been more wrong about the AL Central last season. It was borderline pathetic. I under-estimated the Tigers, White Sox and Twins and over-estimated (terribly) the Indians and Royals. Let’s hope I can do better with this division in 2010.

The Twins have always been known as a team that could pitch and play defense, but their offense was always missing that one final piece to put them over the top. The last few years Mauer and Morneau have been giving their offense some more credibility. Last year Cuddy and Kubel helped them make their offense a legitimate threat. This year? The old faces are back, but they’ve brought some friends in Orlando Hudson, J.J. Hardy and Jim Thome. Yikes. The Twins are actually going to have one of the top-5 offense in all of baseball! Losing Joe Nathan for the season to Tommy John Surgery really hurts, but they do have a serviceable closer in Jon Rauch to step in. All this means is that the roles of every bullpen arm has just gotten more important to their success. They’ll be fine.

The Tigers added Johnny Damon, Austin Jackson and Scott Sizemore to their every day lineup. That’ll help, to an extent. I just don’t see them doing enough to combat what the Twins have added. Johnny Damon isn’t 28 anymore. He’s also not playing with the short porch in right field for the Yankees. He’s playing in the cavernous Comerica Park and actually expected to play defense. Good luck with that Detroit.

The White Sox suck. Ozzie Guillen is a clown. Jake Peavy is pitching in the American League and not the National League. You lost Jim Thome and added Andruw Jones. Should I continue? They aren’t good, but they aren’t the levels of suck that is Kansas City and Cleveland. That’s a whole new level of suck. They’re the suckiest sucks that ever sucked. They actually suck at sucking. They can’t even do that well.

American League West

Texas Rangers: 93 - 69
Seattle Mariners: 85 - 77
Anaheim Angels: 81 - 81
Oakland Athletics: 73 - 89

Look, I picked the Rangers to win the West last year and they screwed me over. I’m doing it again this year and they better not let me down. Seriously though, Nolan Ryan apparently knows more about baseball than just throwing 98mph fastballs and walking 8 people a game, while throwing a no hitter. He knows how to build a contender. Slowly, but surely, he’s put the pieces together to help the Rangers claim the west. Now is the time to do it. The Angels aren’t the fearful group they once were, but more on them in a minute. The Rangers have power (Josh Hamilton, Nelson Cruz, Vlad Guerrero), speed (Elvis Andrus and Julio Borbon), pitching (Scott Feldman and C.J. Wilson) and a stud arm in the pen (Neftali Feliz). Watch out for Texas.

The Mariners added Cliff Lee and have paired him up with Felix Hernandez as the most imposing top of the rotation duo in the American League. But, you still need three other pitchers in that rotation and Ian Snell, Jason Vargas and Ryan Rowland-Smith aren’t at all imposing. Sorry, they just aren’t. Good enough to win 80+, but not good enough win 90+ and compete. Maybe next year, but probably not.

In the past 12 months the Angels have lost John Lackey, Chone Figgins and Vladimir Guerrero. They’ve been replaced with Joel Piniero, Brandon Wood and Hideki Matsui. One of those names is actually an upgrade. The other two, not so much. I’ll let you be the judge and figure out who I’m referring to. The playoff series between the Yankees and Angels last year was terrific, but David finally slayed their Goliath. It’s just too bad the Yankees won’t get to do it again this season.

American League Most Valuable Player: Even though his team is going to finish in 3rd, the one place Tampa Bay finishes 1st is going to be in the MVP race. Evan Longoria will be your 2010 American League MVP. .310 average, 35 home runs and 125 runs batted in. He’s a superstar and he scares the living crap out of me at the plate.

American League Cy Young Winner: The Zach Greinke shot in the dark I won with last year, is going to replaced by the obvious choice of the best left handed pitcher in the American League. Apologies to Cliff Lee and CC Sabathia, but the best left hander in the AL is Red Sox Jon Lester. Realize it pains me to say he’s going to win the Cy Young, but he will. 20 – 6, 3.10 era. I wish I end up wrong and Sabathia wins it, but it’s not likely.

American League Rookie of the Year: Scott Sizemore; Tigers. He’s going to hit and he’s going to run. The rookie class in the American League isn’t that outstanding, so it shouldn’t take much for him to stand out above the rest.

We’ve got the regular season records and regular season awards all taken care of, now it’s time to take a look at the crystal ball for what October baseball will bring.

In the National League Division Series:

Phillies over Cardinals in 3
Rockies over Braves in 5

In the American League Division Series:

Rangers over Red Sox in 4
Yankees over Twins 5

In the National League Championship Series:

Rockies over Phillies in 6

NLCS MVP: Ian Stewart

In the American League Championship Series:

Yankees over Rangers in 7

ALCS MVP: CC Sabathia

In the World Series:

Yankees over Rockies in 6

World Series MVP: Curtis Granderson

There you have it. Before the games have even been played, I’ve predicted the records of all 30 teams in baseball, the winners of the major awards and how October (and early November) will play out. It took a lot of back and forth thinking to rationalize how the Yankees, a team I bashed before, could possibly repeat as World Champions. Well, once the calendar turns to October, the Yankees have the rings, the experience and the hunger of a champion. The Rockies want the rings, need the experience and are being fed to the lion.

So, like the 27 times before it, for the 28th time, to steal a line from Billy Joel, the entire world will be in a New York State of Mind.

Am I right? I guess we’ll find out in 6 months.

Until then….