Sunday, October 7, 2012

An Ace Among Us



There is no denying that CC Sabathia has been an unbelievable workhorse logging at least 230 innings each of the past 5 seasons. But, could the consistency to which he's been utilized finally be causing Sabathia to pay the price?

Sabathia was on the disabled list twice this season, including once in August because of an elbow problem, the first time in his career he was on the DL for an arm-related issue. Despite coming back after an absence of a few weeks, the lingering question that remained with Sabathia was, “how much discomfort was he still feeling?” CC can say all the right things; that he's healthy, he feels fine, etc, but the way he was throwing and the swings teams had against him when he first came back certainly suggested trouble. 

In a six start span when he came off the disabled list with his elbow trouble, Sabathia allowed 23 runs and 38 hits in 43 innings, as the Yankees went 3 – 3 in those games. Although he's at a young enough age to still have many productive years left, is it more likely he'll spend those years as a very good pitcher, who's being paid to perform like an extraordinarily great pitcher? 

There's no denying that Sabathia wants the ball every 5 days (he'd probably take it every day if they let him) and is a gamer in every sense of the word. But, while he sees no drop in his velocity or his performance, everybody else does and the numbers back it up. In his first year wearing pinstripes, Sabathia's average fastball was clocked at 94.1mph, but by 2011 his average velocity was down to 93.9mph and at a career low 92.4mph this season. While most pitchers generally lose velocity as they age, Sabathia shouldn't see such a stark drop-off in performance this quickly. What could be the cause of this?

19,607: The number of pitches Sabathia has thrown (not including 2012), over the past 5 seasons. To put it simply, that’s more pitches than any human being has thrown in 5 years. Between 2007 and 2011, Sabathia started 185 games, logged 1,278 innings and threw nearly 20,000 pitches. That incredibly heavy workload is finally causing Sabathia to suffer the consequences. Recent history has shown that any pitcher with a heavy workload over a number of years begins to see a drop-off in results that likely lead to a serious injury.

Don’t believe me? Here are two prime examples: Johan Santana and Roy Halladay. In Santana’s case, in the 5 year span between 2006 – 2010, he logged 155 games started, 1,052 innings and threw 12,554 pitches. That’s considerably less than Sabathia, who logged an entire season’s worth of games, innings and pitches compared to his lefty counterpart in the Big Apple. But, much like Sabathia seems to be noticing now; Santana noticed a decline in performance and ended up missing the entire 2011 season after undergoing major reconstructive shoulder surgery, only to return this season, where he was shutdown in mid-August with a tired shoulder and a bad back (this could be attributed more to the 134 pitches he threw during his June no hitter; he was never the same pitcher after that game).

Roy Halladay, possibly the biggest workhorse in the National League threw a Sabathia-esque amount of pitches during the same 5 year span from 2007 – 2011. In those 5 seasons, Halladay started 167 games, accounting for 1,231 innings and 17,554 pitches. While he may have started fewer games in that span, Halladay managed nearly the same number of innings and threw 2,000 less pitches than Sabathia. In that same span, Halladay also managed to throw a perfect game and a no hitter in the same season. But, much like CC, Halladay paid the price for it this year, missing nearly 2 months with a shoulder injury, while starting the fewest games since 2005 and posting the worst ERA of his career (when throwing more than 100 innings). Is this the future Yankee fans can expect from the hefty lefty?

Perhaps, but it seems not quite yet. More recently, the results for Sabathia have been the best they have been all season. In his last 3 starts, he’s thrown 24 innings, allowed 13 hits, 2 runs and 4 walks, while tallying up 28 strikeouts. Although the numbers are impressive, the only game during which Sabathia faced a decent offense was his no decision against Oakland.

Much like a car that has logged 200,000 miles won't continue to run forever, Sabathia's time as front-end pitcher won't continue on forever. After now throwing more than 20,000 pitches in just over a five year span and logging nearly 1,500 innings in that same timeframe, it looks like the miles on the stoic frame of the husky left hander may finally be starting to catch up to him as he begins to sputter to the side of the road.

While Yankee fans are hoping Sabathia continues pitching like the true ace he is supposed to be, the Yankees find themselves in a familiar position; staring at the most crucial juncture of the season, fielding a 25 man roster of All-Star caliber talent and expecting their starting pitching to hold up. 

But, unlike the past few years, the Yankees hope they don’t find themselves all out of aces.


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