I'm not kidding. It's the same Derek Jeter that is the 9 time all-star, 3 time silver slugger, 3 time gold glove winner and 6 time top-1o finisher in the MVP voting. He'll also undoubtedly be 3,000 hit Derek Jeter, 500 career doubles Derek Jeter and future first ballot Hall of Famer, Derek Jeter.
You know him as the individual who has been the #2 hitter in the Yankees lineup for much of the past 5,054 days that he's been their starting short stop. But, with each passing year, we get a little older, our reflexes get slower, our timing diminishes by just a tick, we do, what every individual does; we age. And, in the case of Derek Jeter, he's no longer the wide eyed 21 year old rookie that was as thin as ihs bat and carried a franchise on his back for the past 13 years.
That young, highly touted prospect has turned into a seasoned veteran. One of the last remaining members of the old Yankee dynasty (with Jorge Posada, Mariano Rivera and Andy Pettitte), hoping to stick around long enough to usher in the next Yankee dynasty with open arms and a passing of the torch.
14 years ago Don Mattingly retired and passed the torch of the Yankee culture onto a young, unproven, untested, rookie. At that time, nobody knew it. Derek Jeter wasn't supposed to be given an opportunity. (Thank you, Tony Fernandez, for breaking your arm during Spring Training in 1996, we're sending you a fruit basket that's a decade and a half overdo) But, he got that opportunity and did he ever run with it. Rookie of the year award, 4 World Series titles and becoming the face of the greatest franchise in all of sports.
Where were you in the 2001 postseason? Where were you when Derek Jeter made his infamous "flip" play to save the Yankees season in Game 3 of the 2001 ALDS against the Oakland Athletics?
I'll paint a picture for you. It's the 7th inning, there are 2 outs and a runner on first base. The Yankees are clinging to a 1 - 0 lead. Athletics left fielder Terrence Long is at the plate and he promptly rips a liner down the right field line off of Mike Mussina. Yankees right fielder Shane Spencer digs the ball out of the corner and makes an errant throw, overthrowing cutoff man Tino Martinez. As base-runner Jeremy Giambi rounds third base and heads for home, it seemed as if the Athletics would surely tie the game. But, just as he had done in 1996, coming out of nowhere to become a superstar, Derek Jeter came out of nowhere to grab the ball and flip it to Jorge Posada who tagged Giambi on the leg just milliseconds before he was able to step on the plate and score.
"That is fair, down the right field line. Giambi on his way to third, and they're gonna wave him around! The throw misses the cutoff man - shovel to the plate! Out at the plate! Derek Jeter with one of the most unbelievable plays you will ever see by a shortstop!"
-Thom Brennaman
Where were you just two weeks later when Derek Jeter became Mr. November? All of the truly great and memorable moments in Yankee lure over the past decade have predominantly involved the faithful Captain. But, over the past few years, things have been changing. As the playoff hopes dwindled, the teams' struggles lasting longer, there has been turmoil, controversy and frustration with players and fans alike. The one constant, Derek Jeter, is ever so slowly becoming a shell of his former self.
Don't believe me? Well, I'll put my money where my mouth is. Derek Jeter is 34 years old, he doesn't turn 35 until the end of June. Below is what he has done over the past three years of play (ages 32, 33 and 34), you'll notice a little trend.
Age 32: 159 games played, .343 batting average, 56 extra base hits, 97 runs batted in, 34 stolen bases in 39 attempts, 69 walks, a .417 on base percentage and 13 double plays grounded into.
Age 33: 156 games played, .322 batting average, 55 extra base hits, 83 runs batted in, 15 stolen bases in 23 attempts, 56 walks, a .388 on base percentage and 21 double plays grounded into.
Age 34: 150 games played, .300 batting average, 39 extra base hits, 69 runs batted in, 11 stolen bases in 16 attempts, 52 walks, a .363 on base percentage and 24 double plays grounded into.
What does this tell you? From looking at just the numbers, his batting average has steadily been declining over the past three years. Some will attribute this to his constant playing with injuries, which is very true. But, it also shows that while he still plays 90% of his teams games, playing with nagging injuries has significantly affected his overall performance. The drastic decline in his extra base hit numbers over the past year, shows his inability to drive the ball with as much force as he used to.
The number of double plays he's hit into has moderately risen over the past few years as well (which is why he's been shifted into the leadoff role in the Yankees batting order), which shows that he isn't lifting the ball as he has done in the past, all signs that point towards decline in bat speed and ability to turn over the wrists quick enough to drive the ball with enough force to hit it over the infielders head.
Doing a little research, I discovered that the two individuals whom Derek Jeter's career most resembles are former Chicago Cubs second baseman Ryne Sandberg and former Cleveland Indians second baseman Roberto Alomar. I studied the seasons that Sandberg and Alomar had at ages 32 and 33 respectively, and then the average season each had from age 34 until retirement. They, too, suffered the same sort of decline that Jeter seems to be headed towards. Don't believe me? Let the numbers speak for themselves:
Ryne Sandberg age 32: 158 games played, .304 batting average, 66 extra base hits, 87 runs batted in, 17 stolen bases in 23 attempts, 68 walks and a .371 on base percentage.
Ryne Sandberg age 33: 117 games played, .309 batting average, 29 extra base hits, 45 runs batted in, 9 stolen bases in 11 attempts, 37 walks and a .350 on base percentage.
Ryne Sandberg's average season ages 34 - 37: Averaged 85 games played per season, with a .250 batting average, 28 extra baes hits, 45 runs batted in, 5 stolen bases in 8 attempts, 26 walks and a .312 on base percentage.
Roberto Alomar age 32: 155 games played, .310 batting average, 61 extra base hits, 89 runs batted in, 39 stolen bases in 43 attempts, 64 walks and a .378 on base percentage.
Roberto Alomar age 33: 157 games played, .336 batting average, 66 extra base hits, 100 runs batted in, 30 stolen bases in 36 attempts, 80 walks and a .415 on base percentage.
Roberto Alomar's average season ages 34 - 36: Averaged 115 games played, .262 batting average, 27 extra base hits, 39 runs batted in, 9 stolen bases in 12 attempts, 43 walks and a .328 on base percentage.
The similarities are obviously there. After the age of 33, Ryne Sandberg spent more time in the trainer's room than he did on the playing field, being decimated with injuries and his career numbers dwindling to the point of mediocrity. The same can be said for Roberto Alomar as well. Although he had arguably his best statistical season at the age of 33, the following year and subequent years thereafter, he was a shell of his former self and became nothing more than a part-time player, in the twilight of his career.
Now, I'm not saying that Derek Jeter is going to bat .248 this season and hit 4 home runs before he decides to hang up the cleats in mid-July. He could very easily hit .300 and post numbers very close to what the back of his baseball card dictates. All I am saying is that the framework for decline has been laid and seems to have started over the past few seasons and it's going to continue happening, much sooner, rather than later.
But, I am not surprised in the least bit. The reason Jeter's decline and eventual move to mediocrity is largely because he is a victim of playing the game the right way. THIS IS WHAT IS SUPPOSED TO HAPPEN WHEN YOU'RE 35! Players aren't meant to hit 45 home runs after the age of 40 (We're lokoing at you Bonds), or have sub 2.00 era's and win Cy Young awards (Hello, Mr. Clemens).
In the old days, before the steroid era began, when a player entered their mid-30's, they began the twilight of their career. This is when their skill sets diminished, their numbers faded and they eventually sailed off into the sunset. That's what is beginning to happen to Derek Jeter. Will he play another 5 or 6 years? It's almost a certainty. But, will he play up to the level he did 3 or even 4 years ago? Not a chance. It just doesn't happen naturally. You've been seeing it with Ken Griffey Junior for the past 5 years. Our superhero stars of the mid-90's, are ever so slowly getting ready to hang up their capes and become mere mortals.
I don't know when the transformation of Derek Jeter from the superstar face of the New York Yankees to the next number retired and enshrined in monument park will be. But, I do know that it's going to happen. And it's going to happen a lot sooner than any of us think. Here's hoping we can get the Captain one or two more titles before he decides to lead the Yankees onto the field for the last time.
They say that baseball is a young man's game. It seems that we're headed in that direction again...
maybe he'll lead them to another ring this year, tell boston to go f' themselves for the 27th time and retire proudly?
ReplyDelete