Since I'm an American League kinda guy, I'll start off with the National League first.
National League East
Atlanta Braves: 92 - 70
Florida Marlins: 88 - 74
Philadelphia Phillies: 87 - 75
New York Mets: 85 - 77
Washington Nationals: 56 - 106
Although the New York Mets are the consensus pick by many to win the East, as well as the World Series, I just don't see it. Sure, they have the best pitcher on the planet in Johan Santana and an entirely revamped bullpen headed up by Frankie Rodriguez and J.J. Putz, but that's about it. Their #2 - 5 starter's are (in no particular order) Mike Pelfrey, John Maine, Oliver Perez and Livan Hernandez. Mark my words, those guys will be lucky to win 40 games combined this year.
The Phillies won the World Series last year, but what have you done for me lately? I'm not sold on their starting rotation either. Outside of staff ace Cole Hamels and Brett Myers, I don't think 95 year old Jamie Moyer, or Athletic's reject Joe Blanton can really help secure a division title anytime soon. And sorry, Chan Ho Park, but this isn't 1999, you aren't good any more. (not that you ever were).
The Florida Marlins have one of the best young rotations in baseball. Their ace is Ricky Nolasco, but he's not even their best pitcher. That would be Josh Johnson, who may one day win a Cy Young award. With the rest of their rotation containing young, yet unproven pitchers, there will be a lot of days they don't see past the 5th inning, but with a lineup built around Hanley Ramirez, Dan Uggla and Jorge Cantu, this is certainly a team that's up and coming.
The Atlanta Braves however, will win the National League East. You can never count out any team that has Bobby Cox as their manager. Especially when that team has completely revamped their starting rotation, by adding Derek Lowe, Javier Vazquez and Kenshin Kawakami to the front end, to compliment young starters Jair Jurrjens and JoJo Reyes. Add that to the pretty good offense the Braves have (expect a bounce back year from Jeff Francouer), and I think that'll be your National League East Champions.
National League Central
Chicago Cubs: 101 - 61
St. Louis Cardinals: 85 - 77
Milwaukee Brewers: 80 - 82
Cincinnati Reds: 79 - 83
Pittsburgh Pirates: 74 - 88
Houston Astros: 74 - 88
The National League Central is a little tough to figure out because there's so many teams that have a chance to finish 2nd. I don't see anybody challenging the Cubs. They are certainly (on paper) the best team in the National League and shouldn't face too much competition in their division. The Astros and Pirates are both going to be fighting for last place, simply because there isn't a lot of talent between the two teams, period. The Reds, while sporting a pretty good offense, still have a lot of question marks in their starting rotation (but, expect huge years from First Baseman Joey Votto and Pitcher Aaron Harang). The Brewers will look to somehow replace the losses of Ben Sheets and CC Sabathia, which will be hard to do. Yovani Gallardo is a great, young pitcher, but even contributions from him, as well as offense from Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder will not be enough to do much in the wins column. The St. Louis Cardinals are certainly an enigma. They have one of the best players on the planet in Albert Pujols. They have a supporting cast which includes Ryan Ludwick and Rick Ankiel, both men who will hit 25+ homers. And they have a stud rookie outfielder named Colby Rasmus who can hit anything under the sun. But, much like every other team in this division. They lack pitching. Having a (questionably?) healthy Chris Carpenter will certainly improve this team drastically, but I just don't see them challenging the Cubs that much.
The Cubs, are terrific. They have an offense that boasts superstars such as Alfonso Soriano, Derrek Lee and Aramis Ramirez. Their starting rotation, is out of this world. Carlos Zambrano, Ryan Dempster, Rich Harden and Ted Lilly is the best 1 - 4 of any team in baseball. They will he hard pressed to beat on any given day and I certainly see the Cubs having a tremendous season.
National League West
Los Angeles Dodgers: 100 - 62
San Francisco Giants: 94 - 68
Colorado Rockies: 86 - 76
Arizona Diamondbacks: 75 - 87
San Diego Padres: 72 - 90
Let's look at this realistically, the Padres are going to be bad. They are going to be monumentally bad. They would be the worst team in the National League if the Washington Nationals didn't exist. Outside of Jake Peavy (who will be traded sooner rather than later) and Adrian Gonzalez, they have no talent.
The Colorado Rockies traded away their best player, Matt Holliday, to Oakland during the offseason. Things aren't looking too bright for the Rockies. They have a decent offense centered around Garrett Atkins, Brad Hawpe and aging veteran Todd Helton. They've got a pretty good bullpen, having two closers (Huston Street and Manny Corpas), but they leave a lot to be desired in their starting rotation. Outside of Aaron Cook and Ubaldo Jimenez, they're going to need somebody else to step up if they want to compete.
The San Francisco Giants are getting considerably better. With a starting rotation boasting young stud Tim Lincecum, as well as Matt Cain and veteran lefty Randy Johnson, I think the Giants can surprise a lot of people. With veteran leadership on the diamond in Edgar Renteria, Bengie Molina, Aaron Rowand and Randy Winn, it wouldn't surprise me one bit to see the Giants sneak up to the 90 win mark. That being said, they will still finish behind the Dodgers.
I don't care what names you put in your starting lineup, when the top 2 pitchers in your rotation are as good as Brandon Webb and Dan Haren, you're going to win some games. Throw in bounceback years off either injury or disappointment from Doug Davis and Jon Garland, you've got yourself a good rotation.
With Manny Ramirez, the Los Angeles Dodgers offense can outslug any team, on any given day. Without Manny Ramirez, they're a third place team. Let Manny be Manny. I don't care if he drops 3 balls a game, takes a bathroom break in the middle of the fourth inning on a sunny Tuesday afternoon or throws sunflower seeds at homeless people during the 7th inning stretch. Mark him down for .325, 43 home runs and 125 runs batted in. And give him a supporting cast of Rafael Furcal, James Loney, Matt Kemp, Russell Martin and Andre Ethier, you're scoring 5 runs a game easily. The only thing keeping the Dodgers from being a World Series favorite is their pitching staff. Not only is their shaky bullpen being handled by career bullpen killer Joe Torre, but their starting rotation has a bunch of young arms after "ace" Randy Wolf. Young arms and Joe Torre would be the scariest combination for any human being to comprehend, once Dusty Baker retires. (sidenote: are their any two worse managers for young arms than Dusty Baker and Joe Torre? I swear Baker is going to have one of his pitchers throw 180 pitches in 4 innings one day and I won't be surprised. And Joe Torre loses faith in anybody under 35 quicker than an Athiest loses faith in God)
National League Most Valuable Player: Albert Pujols; he'll hit at least .330 with around 38 home runs and 130 runs batted in. You can count on that
National League Cy Young Winner: It's Tim Lincecum's world and we're all just going to be living in it for the 2nd year in a row. He'll take this award in a landslide and have a record of 22 - 8 with a 2.45 ERA and 230 strikeouts.
National League Rookie of the Year: He's yet to be called up by the Nationals yet, but Jordan Zimmerman is the best rookie in the world right now. He'll win 12 games and have a sub 4 era and will easily win this award. (sidenote: if Stephen Strasburg had been drafted yet, I'd have chosen him, but because he hasn't been drafted till June, I didn't. But, realize, he will be in the Nationals rotation by September)
American League East
New York Yankees: 99 - 63
Boston Red Sox: 97 - 65
Tampa Bay Rays: 89 - 73
Toronto Blue Jays: 81 - 81
Baltimore Orioles: 75 - 87
I can sum up the seasons for the Blue Jays and Orioles really easily. You guys don't matter. You won't matter. You won't factor into the discussion of the division for the entire season. If by some miracle either the Jays or Orioles finish in the top 2 of this division, I will personally get a Tattoo of their respective mascot on my butt. That's how positive I am they will finish in 4th and 5th place. End of discussion.
I'm not allowing my Yankee love bias or influence my decision on picking the Yankees to finish in first or the Red Sox to finish in second. I based it purely on talent and the Yankees clearly have more talent than Boston. I will not be clouded by the additions of Brad Penny, John Smoltz and lifetime Disabled List veteran Rocco Baldelli. The Red Sox have a lineup that consists of the reigning MVP Dustin Pedroia and All-Star first baseman Kevin Youkilis. Mike Lowell is a shell of his former self and is currently eroding away at third base before our very eyes. David Ortiz's bum wrist is not healed and until he can actually drive the ball with any sort of power (you didn't do it during spring training Papi) I don't think he's a threat. As Scott Boras so eloquently said during the off season, "Jason Varitek doesn't catch a pitching staff, he teaches a pitching staff". Yea, right. You can teach them right to the get away car, because you robbed Boston of some cash and a starting job with that ridiculous contract they actually gave you. You're terrible and you're still their catcher. Mind boggling. Jon Lester is their best pitcher and he's the only Red Sox pitcher that actually frightens me. He's stuff is just plain filthy. Daisuke Matsuzaka's jig is up. Loading the bases and going 3 - 2 on every batter isn't going to fly much longer. Say hello to mediocrity Boston Fans. It's Hideki Irabu light! Their bullpen is lights out with Jonathan "I river dance when I get a meaningless save in April" Papelbon. But, that isn't enough to dethrone the Yankees this year.
The Rays have the best young team in baseball with the best third baseman in the American League in Evan Longoria, as well as All-Star first baseman Carlos Pena, to go along with absurdly fast outfielders Carl Crawford and BJ Upton. They are going to be a good team for at least another decade. Add in Pat Burrell to replace Cliff Floyd and you've got yourself a great team, yet again. Simply tremendous.
But, when you've got the unlimited spending minds of the Steinbrenner's you will never let yourself be outdone. Spending nearly $450 million on the additions of AJ Burnett, Mark Teixeira and CC Sabathia to replace Jason Giambi, Bobby Abreu and Mike Mussina and I think you've done a great job. The depth the Yankees boast on their bench and in their starting rotation is astounding. Having Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy sitting in wait in the minor leagues, in case of injury or inconsistency (this is you Joba) and you're looking at a great team. But, with every great team comes question marks. And, with the Yankees out question marks lie in the bullpen. Outside of Mariano Rivera and Brian Bruney, there's not one person in that pen that I trust to throw 1 strike, let alone get 1 out. Jose Veras, Edwar Ramirez and Damaso Marte aren't the answer. Veras and Edwar are fat too inconsistent and have iffy control. Damaso Marte can't get out righties. He can't get out lefties. And we gave him $12 million dollars. Lovely. We need some help in the bullpen. Thankfully, our minor league system is chock full of them. By mid-June you'll be well acquainted with the name Mark Melancon. Trust me.
American League Central
Cleveland Indians: 88 - 74
Kansas City Royals: 84 - 78
Minnesota Twins: 82 - 80
Chicago White Sox: 79 - 83
Detroit Tigers: 76 - 86
This division is incredibly hard to determine. There are no clear cut "great" teams. Each team is pretty good in their own right. Because of that, I don't see any team winning 90 games. It's just too close for one team to really just jump ahead of the others and take control. The Tigers have a tremendous offense with reigning home run champion Miguel Cabrera, Magglio Ordonez, Curtis Granderson and Placido Polanco. But, their rotation is filled with a bunch of erratic pitchers who can never really find "it" (See: Jackson, Edwin and Miner, Zach), as well as a man who once had "it", but hasn't been able to find it for nearly 3 years (See: Verlander, Justin) and two young studs (See: Galaragga, Armando and Porcello Rick). Top that off with a closer who is terrible (Cue Brandon Lyon or Fernando Rodney) and you've got a team that won't win the division.
The Chicago White Sox are in a similar situation as the Tigers. Their offense is centered around Jim Thome, Paul Konerko, Jermaine Dye, Carlos Quentin and Alexei Ramirez. That's a pretty good mix of power, speed and talent. But, once again, a great lineup with a lot of questions surrounding the pitching staff. Can Mark Buehrle regain his old all-star caliber form? Is John Danks ready to take the next step to dominance? Is Bartolo Colon hungry enough? (I meant hungry on the mound, not if he's looking for dinner. We always know that he's craving chocolate). With questions such as those surrounding your team, it's hard to buy into them as a contender.
The Minnesota Twins are on the complete other side of the spectrum compared to the Tigers and White Sox. They have a great set of pitchers headed by staff ace Francisco Liriano (fresh off Tommy John Surgery), with Scott Baker, Kevin Slowey and Glen Perkins mixed in. Having an all-star closer in Joe Nathan at the back of the pen and you've got yourself set up for a lot of games in which you only allow 2 or 3 runs. Problem is, you'll be lucky to score 3 or 4 runs to win the game. Their offense is putrid. Yes, putrid. Vocab word of the day. Basically, that means they're awful offensively. Joe Mauer is hurt with a bad back and as a catcher, you pretty much need to be able to bend over in order to play and there's no telling when or if he'll be able to return to effectiveness. Outside of Justin Morneau and Michael Cuddyer, there's no pop in the lineup at all. They sport the best defensive centerfielder in the American League, but he can't hit a lick. You can't win when half your team is batting around .240.
The Kansas City Royals are going to be the biggest surprise in baseball this year. They could very well be this years Tampa Bay Ray's. I have that much confidence in Trey Hillman's ability to lead and inspire his players to go at it hard every day. They've got a better lineup than you think. The addition of Coco Crisp will certainly help defensively and it allows David DeJesus to shift over to left field, where he's better suited. The trade that brought Mike Jacobs over will add some serious pop to their lineup to combine with the hopeful emergence of Alex Gordon, will blend in a nice array of speed, power and contact hitters in the Royals lineup. But, on the pitching side is where I really like Kansas City. They have one of the best closers you've never heard of in Joakim Soria. The presence he has on the mound is Mariano Rivera-esque. Just an absolute aura about him every time he enters a game. Gil Meche is going to prove he's worth the $55 million that the Royals gave him a few years ago. And Zach Greinke is ready to absolutely have a break out year and will finish in the top 5 in the Cy Young voting and may very well win it. While I don't think the Royals will win the division, I think they'll be hanging around all season long and if given the right luck, they could very well make a run for it.
The Cleveland Indians are going to win this division. They've got the best mixture of offense and pitching of any team in this division. The addition of new closer Kerry Wood to go along with set-up men Rafael Perez and Rafael Betancourt gives the Indians a shut down bullpen and shortens most games to just a 6 inning affair for their starters. Given they have the reigning Cy Young winner in Cliff Lee, to go along with Fausto Carmona, Anthony Reyes, Aaron Laffey and the American Idle himself Carl Pavano, they've got a pretty decent starting rotation. Lee and Carmona are obviously the staples of that rotation, with the youth of Cardinals cast off Reyes and Indians farmhand Laffey are welcomed to their team. I expect Pavano to have a tremendous year, just for the sheer fact he's finally healthy and finally out of the pressures and hatred of New York. Focusing your lineup around 30 homer / 30 stolen base man Grady Sizemore, as well as new comer Mark Derosa and banking on the hopefulness of Victor Martinez and Travis Hafner returning from injury surely make the Indians the favorite's in this division.
American League West
Texas Rangers: 93 - 69
Seattle Mariners: 85 - 77
Anaheim Angels: 81 - 81
Oakland Athletics: 73 - 89
I realize I look rather crazy for the predictions I have in the AL West. But, hear me out here. The Athletics, even though they added Matt Holliday, Jason Giambi, Nomar Garciapara and Orlando Cabrera to their offense, are relying solely on starting pitchers that can't legally rent a car. Not only are they young pitchers, but they aren't even highly touted prospects. They think they can go to battle with a starting rotation full of names such as Dallas Braden, Trevor Cahill and Josh Outman. Sorry, but I don't think Josh is necessarily going to be the "out man". (Corny joke, I know)
Anaheim is usually a lock to at least win the American League West, but coming into the season with major injuries to their top 3 starting pitchers (Ervin Santana, John Lackey and Kelvim Escobar) and losing the bat of Mark Teixeira in their lineup and having to rely on the bat and glove of mediocre Kendry Morales is asking a lot of the team. Granted, they did add Bobby Abreu to their gluttony of outfielders, but replacing Francisco Rodriguez with Brian Fuentes is certainly a downgrade. That being said, I don't think this is the Angels year. But, here's hoping for a great season from Nick Adenhart, my fantasy team would really appreciate it.
The Seattle Mariners are one of those teams that will be a lot better than many people think. Their success will rely largely on the shoulders of Felix Hernandez and Erik Bedard. If they both have the types of seasons that they are expected to (and capable) of having, then the Mariners will win a bunch of games in a rather weak division.
The Texas Rangers have a great offense. That's an absolute given. Add a full season from Nelson Cruz (37 homers in the minors last year) and a complete season from Chris Davis (an absolute power machine) to the likes of Josh Hamilton and Michael Young, and an already potent lineup just got more dangerous. If they are able to get anything out of Andruw Jones, that'd be short of a miracle. But, with the pitching likes of Kevin Millwood, Vicente Padilla and Kris Benson, they could win their fair share of 7 -5 ball games. With pitching coach Mike Maddux (from what I hear an absolute pitching genius, go figure) tinkering with their deliveries and mechanics, it could be a smoldering summer down in Arlington for the Rangers.
American League Most Valuable Player: Miguel Cabrera; even though I picked his team to finish in dead last, I think he's going to put up monster numbers in the .340, 42 and 140 range. Which would make it really hard to go against his numbers, even if he's in last place.
American League Cy Young Winner: My gut tells me to go with Zach Greinke here, but my heart is telling me to go with Roy Halladay. After seeing him dominate the Yankees on at least four occasions last season, I can't go against the guy. He'll rattle off a season in the range of 20 - 10 with a 2.65 ERA.
American League Rookie of the Year: Ricky Romero; watch this kid pitch on the Blue Jays and you will certainly be impressed. It wouldn't surprise me if he won 14 games for Toronto, one bit. And given the lack of rookies in the American League and the fact Baltimore isn't likely to call up Matt Wieters until June (if you don't know that name, you will. Think Pudge Rodriguez's defensive skills with Mike Piazza's bat), Romero should win this award uncontested.
Now that we've gotten the division records and awards in each league taken care of, let's talk about the playoffs. (to quote Jim Mora, "playoffs? you wanna talk about playoffs? playoffs?")
In the American League Division Series I've got:
Yankees over Indians in 4
Red Sox over Rangers in 3
In the National League Division Series, I have:
Cubs over Giants in 5
Dodgers over Braves in 4
In the American League Championship Series:
Yankees over Red Sox in 7
In the National League Championship Series:
Cubs over Dodgers in 6
In the World Series:
Cubs over Yankees in 6
There you have it. Before the first game is played, I've predicted the records of each team, the winners of the major awards and who wins in the playoffs. After a period lasting over 100 years, the Chicago Cubs will finally win the World Series and eliminate the Billy Goat curse and the Bartman curse. But, for the Yankees, it'll be the 9th year without a World Series Title and the Curse of A-Rod lives on.
Am I right? Only time will tell
Until then...
my prediction is we should buy somethin like this for your mom for xmas...
ReplyDeletehttp://yankees.auction.mlb.com/