How good can Brett Gardner be?

Just how good can Brett Gardner be? I've often posed myself that question a few times over the course of the last year and a half. For those of you who are unaware, I have been the biggest follower on the "Brett Gardner Love-Fest" long before he ever stepped to the plate in his first Major League game, last June 30th, 2008 against the Texas Rangers (he went 0 for 3 that night).

No, I have been following Gardner since he was just a 21 year old speedster playing for the Staten Island Yankees in Rookie Ball in 2005. (where he hit .284 with 5 home runs and 19 stolen bases). I continued to follow his progression through the Yankee farm system over the course of the next 3 years as he made stops at Tampa (.323 average and 30 stolen bases), Trenton (.285 average, 57 stolen bases) and finally Scranton/Wilkes-Barre (.283 average, 58 stolen bases). At each stop in the minors he went through the same statistical rise and fall; he would start off hot, then quickly taper off as the league caught up to him and after a periodic slump (usually 3 weeks or so) he would make adjustments and ultimately start hitting again. That's been the tale of his career thus far, where he has compiled career minor league statistics of a .291 average, 9 home runs, 125 runs batted in and 153 stolen bases in 184 attempts (an 83% success rating) in just over 2 full seasons.

So far in his brief major league career he has seen that same sort of gradual progression towards nearing his statistical prowess. In his brief cup of coffee with the Yankees last season, Gardner batted an un-impressive .228 and only drew 8 walks for a mediocre .283 on base percentage. Despite that, he was still able to steal 13 bases and in the final month of the season (when he finally began seeing regular playing time again), he was able to raise his average 60 percentage points, to finish his season on a terrific note.

Thus far in 2009, he has carried that success over into this season as well. Through the first half of the season, Gardner has attained a .286 average, a .358 on base percentage, swatted 3 home runs, driven in 19 runs and managed to steal 18 bases. He has achieved all that, while maintaining a platoon role with fellow youngster Melky Cabrera. It seems as if much like his stays at each level of the minor leagues, Brett Gardner has begun to figure out major league hitting and if (obviously a big if) everything holds true as it has in his young career, this is the type of player Brett Gardner can be.

His scouting report states:

" Gardner is a contact hitter who has a good approach at the plate while possessing terrific plate discipline. Speed is by far his best tool, he can steal bases effectively and will improve as he continues to get better reads and breaks. He can greatly impact the game on the bases. Gardner's speed is a game-changer in the field as well. He can track down just about any ball in the air and covers a tremendous amount of ground. With his speed, Gardner could be a very useful backup with the Yankees by 2008 and he should be ready to become an every-day leadoff type in the Bronx by 2009."

Now just who does he remind you of? Any particular names come to mind? Well, since you refuse to answer, I'll throw out one name who Gardner is a perfect embodiment of; Tom Goodwin. (yeah, I know, you probably don't know him or remember him). Goodwin played 14 major league seasons during his career (for the Dodgers, Royals, Rangers, Rockies, Giants and Cubs) and was a career .268 hitter with 24 home runs and 369 stolen bases. Much like Gardner, Goodwin's game was purely speed. He was a slap hitter (like Gardner) who's main goal was to either work a walk, or hit the ball on the ground and beat the throw to first. He had the ability to single handedly change games offensively and defensively with his speed.

Much like Gardner, Tom Goodwin also had the same type of progression through the minor leagues as well. His hitting, plate discipline and base running ability all showed steady improvements through each level of the minor leagues. Throughout Goodwin's minor league career he posted a similar .284 average, 13 home runs, 136 runs batted in and 124 stolen bases. (seems oddly familiar, doesn't it?).

Goodwin had a moderately successful career as a major leaguer, playing bits and pieces of 6 seasons for the Dodgers (at the beginning of his career) and the Giants and Cubs (at the end of his career) in a strictly reserve/pinch running role. But, with the Royals and Rangers, he was given a starting job and regular playing time and he certainly made the most of it. Arguably his best season came in his first full year as a starter for the Royals in 1995 where he hit .288 with 4 home runs, 28 runs batted in and 50 stolen bases, while compiling a .346 on base percentage. During his career, Goodwin stole at least 35 bases in 6 consecutive seasons (his 6 consecutive seasons as an every day player). Throughout his time as a starting outfielder, he hit a combined .273 with 18 home runs, 226 runs batted in, 298 stolen bases and compiling a .341 on base percentage.

Obviously I could be entirely wrong with how I think Brett Gardner's career will go. His success could fizzle out next week or next month. But, this has been his trademark his entire career. Early struggles, which lead to prolonged success. He is the fastest player the Yankees have had patrolling their outfield since Rickey Henderson 20 years ago (he is nowhere near the caliber of player Henderson was, don't get me wrong). But, much like Henderson was able to change the course of a single game with his speed and ability to draw walks, that's what Gardner brings to the table as well. With the statistics Gardner has accrued thus far this season, prorated over the course of a full 500 at bat season, it would see Gardner hit .286 with 8 home runs, 50 runs batted in and 49 stolen bases. That's a game changing player if I ever saw one.

The jury is still out on whether or not Brett Gardner can be a serviceable major league player, or if he's better suited as a reserve outfielder/pinch runner (a la Tom Goodwin the last 4 seasons of his career). But, given the patience of the Yankees front office and manager Joe Girardi, Gardner's track record could speak for itself and they may very well have a game changing presence on the base paths for years to come.


Just make sure you don't blink, or you may miss him.

Until next time...