I figure to make life easier for all of you, I'll show the divisions as I predicted them in April and then as they currently are today. Like always, since I'm an American League man, we'll start things off with the National League.
National League East Predictions
Atlanta Braves: 92 - 70
Florida Marlins: 88 - 74
Philadelphia Phillies: 87 - 75
New York Mets: 85 - 77
Washington Nationals: 56 - 106
National League East Today
Philadelphia Phillies: 43 - 37
Florida Marlins: 43 - 41
New York Mets: 39 - 42
Atlanta Braves: 39 - 43
Washington Nationals: 24 - 56
Alright, well I was somewhat looking good on this prediction of the National League East 3 months later. The Nationals are currently in the cellar of the division, on pace for 48 wins, which is less than I predicted for them. The Mets are mired in mediocrity like I so eloquently predicted. The Braves have surely been more of a disappointment than I had hoped, but I predicted the top 4 teams in this division would finish within 7 games of one another and as of the half-way point of the season, the top 4 teams are within 5 games of one another.
I should also point out, in my predictions column I stated and I quote "The Mets #2 - 5 starter's are Mike Pelfrey, John Maine, Oliver Perez and Livan Hernandez. Mark my words, those guys will be lucky to win 40 games combined this year." I would have you know, that with the season half over today, those 4 men have a combined record (whether it be due to inconsistency or injury) of 17 - 13 with a 5.82 ERA. If you're doing math, they're on pace to finish with (yep, you guessed it) less than 40 wins!
National League Central Predictions
Chicago Cubs: 101 - 61
St. Louis Cardinals: 85 - 77
Milwaukee Brewers: 80 - 82
Cincinnati Reds: 79 - 83
Pittsburgh Pirates: 74 - 88
Houston Astros: 74 - 88
National League Central Today
St. Louis Cardinals: 45 - 39
Milwaukee Brewers: 43 - 39
Chicago Cubs: 41 - 39
Cincinnati Reds: 40 - 41
Houston Astros: 40 - 41
Pittsburgh Pirates: 37 - 46
Let me be the first to say I over-estimated the talent of the Chicago Cubs and under-estimated the talent of the Cardinals and Brewers. Although I stated that the division was "tough to figure out because there's so many teams that have a chance to finish 2nd", I also said that "nobody will challenge the Cubs." Can I get a mulligan on that one? Is there any team in baseball that has been a bigger disappointment than the Chicago Cubs? (Actually, there might be, we'll get to that) My prediction to win the World Series, largely uncontested has seen their offense virtually implode (thank you Milton Bradley) and I also stated that the Cardinals even with a healthy Chris Carpenter (my fantasy team loves you) they wouldn't have the pitching to sustain it throughout the season. Well, it looks like I was wrong on that one. The Cardinals and Brewers are certainly for real and this is going to be a 3 team dog fight to the finish. Obviously my prediction of 101 victories for the Cubbies isn't going to be anywhere near accurate, but I still like them to right the ship and win the division when it's all said and done.
National League West Predictions
Los Angeles Dodgers: 100 - 62
San Francisco Giants: 94 - 68
Colorado Rockies: 86 - 76
Arizona Diamondbacks: 75 - 87
San Diego Padres: 72 - 90
National League West Today
Los Angeles Dodgers: 52 - 30
San Francisco Giants: 45 - 37
Colorado Rockies: 43 - 39
San Diego Padres: 35 - 47
Arizona Diamondbacks: 34 - 49
Can I get some credit here? I accurately predicted the Dodgers to build up a sizeable lead in the division and that the Giants would surprise a lot of people. Check and mate right there. But, I also said that the Rockies, while having a good offense, their rotation outside of Aaron Cook and Ubaldo Jimenez left a lot to be desired. Well, my apologies to all you Rockie fans, because I stated they would "need somebody else to step up if they wanted to compete." I introduce you to Jason Marquis and his 11 wins and his 3.61 ERA. Consider that stepping up.
National League Most Valuable Player Prediction: Albert Pujols; .330 average, 38 home runs and 130 runs batted in
First Half National League Most Valuable Player: Albert Pujols; .336 average, 31 home runs and 82 runs batted in. Well, I'd like to apologize to Albert Pujols. While it's obvious you are well on your way to winning another NL MVP award, I under-estimated you by a considerable margin. The numbers I predicted you to have for the full season, you basically have at the halfway mark. You are truly one in a million. Now please, pee into this cup and prove that you did it legally.
National League Cy Young Winner Prediction: Tim Lincecum; 22 - 8, 2.45 ERA, 230 strikeouts
First Half National League Cy Young Winner: Tim Lincecum; 9 - 2, 2.23 ERA, 140 strikeouts. Hey, I was right with this one. Lincecum has proven that he is the best young pitcher in the game and is projected to finish his season with a 19 - 4 record with 279 strikeouts. So he's predicted to win fewer games and strike out more than I had originally thought, but he's your Cy Young Winner barring anything unforeseen.
National League Rookie of the Year Prediction: Jordan Zimmermann; 12 wins and a sub-4 ERA
First Half National League Rookie of the Year: While Zimmermann has largely been average at best posting a 3 - 3 record with a 4.52 ERA in the first half, the NL Rookie of the Year for the first 81 games has without question been St. Louis Cardinals Outfielder Colby Rasmus who posted a line of .282, 10 and 32. I can't be right all the time, can I?
American League East Predictions
New York Yankees: 99 - 63
Boston Red Sox: 97 - 65
Tampa Bay Rays: 89 - 73
Toronto Blue Jays: 81 - 81
Baltimore Orioles: 75 - 87
American League East Today
Boston Red Sox: 49 - 33
New York Yankees: 48 - 34
Tampa Bay Rays: 44 - 39
Toronto Blue Jays: 43 - 31
Baltimore Orioles: 36 - 47
I predicted the AL East would be a close race between the Yankees and Red Sox and despite the Yankees being 0 -8 against Boston this season, the race has certainly lived up to the hype. Tampa Bay started off poorly, but has come on strong the last three weeks to get back into the race. The Blue Jays who were in the mix of things for the first 2 months or so have begun taking a tailspin towards the cellar as of late. I still hold true to my prediction that the Yankees will win the division.
I should also toot my own horn a little bit here and state that I was 100% correct on two specific stories from the American League East. Not sure what I'm talking about? Let me enlighten you. on April 5th I wrote "David Ortiz's bum wrist is not healed and until he can drive the ball with any sort of power he's not a threat." Ding Ding! Call me Nostradamus, because this boy is a Prophet!
When speaking of the topic of the Yankees bullpen, I stated that "there's not one person in that pen that I trust to throw 1 strike, let alone get 1 out. Jose Veras, Edwar Ramirez and Damaso Marte aren't the answer. We need some help in the bullpen." I won't get too excited about being right with that prediction, because the writing was on the wall. They were all terrible. I knew it in December. I convinced most of you by February. It took Brian Cashman and Joe Girardi until mid-June to realize it.
American League Central Predictions
Cleveland Indians: 88 - 74
Kansas City Royals: 84 - 78
Chicago White Sox: 82 - 80
Minnesota Twins: 79 - 83
Detroit Tigers: 76 - 86
American League Central Today
Detroit Tigers: 44 - 38
Minnesota Twins: 43 - 40
Chicago White Sox: 42 - 40
Kansas City Royals: 36 - 46
Cleveland Indians: 33 - 50
This is just hard to do. I literally picked the division in complete reverse order. I can't even be mad at myself, that takes some serious skill if you ask me. Like I said in April, this division is extremely difficult to determine, because there is no clear cut great team. That being said, I'm beyond disappointed in the Indians and Royals. Two teams I expected to break out and really surprise people, have surprised them with how poorly they've played. I said the Tigers had no starting pitching, specifically insulting Edwin Jackson, who has been one of the top 5 pitchers in the American League so far. I also said the Royals would be this year's Tampa Bay Rays. Eh, wrong again Chris. Basically any possible way you could be wrong, I was wrong when predicting the American League Central (although, I think I'll be vindicated a little bit later...but we'll get to that). My apologies to fans of this entire division, I was hanging out with Jeremy Mayfield and was high on meth when I was writing back in April (ha ha my first ever Nascar joke).
American League West Predictions
Texas Rangers: 93 - 69
Seattle Mariners: 85 - 77
Anaheim Angels: 81 - 81
Oakland Athletics: 73 - 89
American League West Today
Anaheim Angels: 46 - 35
Texas Rangers: 45 - 36
Seattle Mariners: 43 - 39
Oakland Athletics: 35 - 46
Heyyy, I wrote in April I seemed crazy for predicting the Rangers and Mariners to do well, but it looks like I'm pretty smart right now, huh? Granted I predicted the demise of the Angels a bit prematurely, I am pleasantly surprised with how this division is shaping up based on how I thought it would. Mike Maddux has been the tremendous pitching coach the Rangers thought he would be and they have really set themselves up with a nice pitching staff. It is a little sad and tragic that in April I spoke so highly of Angels starting pitcher Nick Adenhart, only to see him pass away a week and a half later. But, despite all of the injuries the Angels have seen themselves encounter, they continue to play well and they continue to win. It looks like the Angels may have something to say the 2nd half of the season to all those who think the Rangers can steal this division (myself included).
American League Most Valuable Player Prediction: Miguel Cabrera; .340 average, 42 home runs and 140 runs batted in
First Half American League Most Valuable Player: Joe Mauer; .389 average, 14 home runs and 45 runs batted in, AFTER missing nearly the first 5 weeks of the season due to injury. All due respect to Miguel Cabrera, even though I picked your team to finish in dead last and you find yourself in first place, you have certainly had an MVP caliber season thus far hitting .322 with 16 home runs and 47 runs batted in. But, Mauer is well on his way to winning yet another batting title and has already posted near career marks in home runs and runs batted in. This will be Mauer's award to lose the rest of the season.
American League Cy Young Winner Prediction: Gut said Zach Greinke, heart told me Roy Halladay at 20 - 10 with a 2.65 ERA
First Half American League Cy Young Winner: Zach Greinke; 10 - 4, 2.00 ERA. It looks like I should've gone with my gut over my heart back in April. But, I can at least rest assured that I correctly predicted the top-2 finishers in the Cy Young voting this season. Roy Halladay is currently 10 - 2 with a 2.79 ERA, likely to do better than the 20 - 10 season I predicted for him. But, Greinke, even on a below average team has been putting up numbers out of this world. He leads the major leagues in complete games, holds a 6:1 strikeout to walk ratio and has been the only form of consistency on his team. He could very well win 20 games on a last place team, which is almost unheard of. I tip my hat to you Zach and am glad to see that the breakout year I hoped for you is well under way.
American League Rookie of the Year Prediction: Ricky Romero
First Half American League Rookie of the Year: Ricky Romero; 7 - 3, 2.96 ERA. Looks like I correctly figured this one out. I said back in April it wouldn't surprise me if he won 14 games for the Jays and he's currently on pace to finish with a 15 - 6 record. He's a young pitcher with tremendous upside and after seeing him defeat the Yankees, he reminds me of a younger, less polished, Johan Santana. Him and Roy Halladay could make a good 1 - 2 combo for the Jays for years to come.
So there you go, after the first half of the season, more often than not I have largely been correct with my predictions to this point. There's still plenty of baseball left to play and in baseball, as Joaquin Andujar once said "you know anything can happen." It should be a great summer and I'm looking forward to more baseball and more surprises.
Until next time...
Good assessment Ramey. (Cept for AL Central, obviously.) I am a little perturbed by your lack of faith in the Phillies though. They didn't win the World Series last year for nothing, and I am surprised you have made no mention of Raul Ibanez. He has had a stellar season thus far, and despite being injured right now, I anticipate him resting up during the all-star break, and pumping out those numbers again. Another starting pitcher would obviously help, and if they have good younger players, hopefully they can get Halladay before the trade deadline as well. They have aslo shown interest in Pedro as well. If they pick up Halladay, though, they will be an extremely solid force in the NL, and should make a deep playoff run, possibly a rematch of last years NLCS with the Dodgers.
ReplyDeleteThe Cubs are just doing what the Cubs do, and I definitely agree with you regarding the Cardinals and Pujols. THE MAN'S A MACHINE!
One team that has impressed me thus far as well, is the San Francisco Giants. They're on pace for 92 wins, twenty more than they were last year, and currently lead the NL Wild Card race. Unfortunately, with the exception of Lincecum, they need more consistency with their pitching staff, taking a hit with the Big Unit landing on the DL.
There are also two pitchers which I have also been very impressed with. Felix Hernandez has been one of the least talked about pitchers and I feel like he deserves to be spoken about, when talking about top pitchers in the American League. He's 8-3, with a 2.62 ERA, and 114 Ks. In the NL, Josh Johnson has impressed me as well. His numbers are excellent and his fastball is has been taking care of business for him all season long.
I wish I had read your blog earlier, or I probably wouldn't have been as patient as I was with David Ortiz on my fantasy team. Fuck the Red Sox, for all their worth anyways.
Right now I am predicting an ALCS with the Yankees and Rangers. (Definitely with a bias). I agree that the Rangers have made great improvement with their pitching staff, and unfortunately for the Angels, injury riddled teams just don't make it too deep.
With the NL this is difficult, because I see three solid teams with the Phillies, Cardinals, and the Dodgers. With the condition that Philly is not willing to part with younger players, and doesn't pick up Halladay, I pick an NLCS between the Cardinals and the Dodgers.
At the end of the day I see the Dodgers winning it all.
ADAM V.