Unless you spend your days living in an old Volkswagen Scirocco and have no contact with the outside world, you’ve obviously heard of Roy Halladay. You’ve also heard that Roy Halladay is currently on the trading block and as many as a possible dozen teams are vying for his services. If he is traded, he will instantly make whatever team he is on, the favorites to win the World Series. He has that sort of impact on a game.
This season Halladay has an 11 – 3 record with a 2.73 era in 132 innings. Over the course of his career, he has a 142 – 69 lifetime record and an astonishing 44 complete games (nearly unheard of in this day and age of 5 inning pitchers). He has a fairly reasonable contract that will pay him roughly $20 million over the next 18 months before he is eligible for free agency. The Toronto Blue Jays General Manager J.P. Ricciardi will obviously be looking for an exorbitant amount of talent in return for Halladay, so any team hoping to acquire him will need to be willing to suffer a great deal of pain.
Just where will he go? Let’s dissect and analyze that right now!
We’ll first start off by giving every team in baseball the same equal shot at acquiring Roy Halladay and then eliminate them piece by piece based on Halladay’s preferences in accepting a trade (he has a full no trade clause and must accept any tentative deal) or just the sheer possibility of a particular team acquiring him.
Firstly, Roy Halladay has stated all along he prefers to play for a championship contending team (sorry San Diego, Arizona, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Washington, Oakland, Cleveland, Kansas City and Baltimore. I really thought you had a chance).
That was pretty easy, one question and 1/3 of the league is already eliminated! Next up, you have to factor in a teams financial situation to be able to absorb the monetary cost of acquiring that type of impact player (sorry to Houston, Milwaukee, Florida and Minnesota. Thanks for playing).
Lastly, you need to think about the teams in baseball that clearly lack the minor league talent to acquire a player of this magnitude and not entirely mortgage your future and still be capable of fielding a respectable farm system (that means you; Colorado, Cubs, Atlanta, Detroit, Mets and Seattle).
Alright, after asking and answering those 3 questions, it leaves us with 10 teams. (San Francisco, Los Angeles, St. Louis, Philadelphia, Texas, Anaheim, White Sox, Tampa Bay, the Yankees and Boston). That sounds about right, remember before I said up to a dozen teams would be vying for Halladay? And you thought I was kidding, huh?
But, oh yeah, before we even get into our “Top 10 likely landing spots for Roy Halladay,” I completely forgot about Halladay’s preference to play for a team that trains in Florida during the spring. (Hey, he’s got a blanket no trade clause, he could say he wants to play for a team whose stadium’s outfield is pointed west towards the setting sun).
So, factoring in the teams who play in the Grapefruit League during Spring training, that potentially eliminates another handful of teams who play in the Cactus League in Arizona (Apologies to San Francisco, Los Angeles, Texas, Anaheim and the White Sox. You were so close!! Please accept this complimentary fruit basket and your very own copy of “Moneyball: The Art of Winning an Unfair Game,” because well, the only thing keeping you from getting Halladay is he doesn’t like the heat, that’s unfair to you!)
Wow, so we’re down to 5 teams. Just 5 teams who have the need, organizational prospects and the financial capabilities to acquire the services of Doc Halladay. (Tampa Bay, New York, Boston, Philadelphia, St. Louis) Oh, shoot! I forgot that Tampa Bay’s ownership said they can’t add on any more payroll this year, so they’re hands are tied! (Now that has to sting, huh? You’ve got the prospects but can’t back it up with your wallet. Tough break. At least you field a terrific team in front of a sell out crowd every night! Wait, really? You’re telling me that the defending American League Champions have the 5th lowest attendance rate in baseball? No way, the Washington Nationals and Kansas City Royals average more fans per game? No kidding! Well, it could be worse. You could be Pittsburgh)
Alright, alright, for real this time, we are down to just 4 teams who are capable of giving J.P. Ricciardi what he wants for Roy Halladay, being able to stomach the financial cost of it all and not mortgage your future by gutting your farm system. Those 4 teams are the St. Louis Cardinals, Philadelphia Phillies, Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees. Time to break it down in order of who has the best chance at making the big splash for Halladay before the deadline.
4. Boston Red Sox:
Why they will: The Red Sox starting rotation has considerable question marks outside of top-2 Josh Beckett and Jon Lester. Although Tim Wakefield is 11 – 3 and fresh off his first all-star game, his era is still above the league average and he’s just luckier during his starts than actually dominating the competition. Couple that with the fact Daisuke Matsuzaka is injured (as well as ineffective), Brad Penny and John Smoltz haven’t exactly pitched up to the standards as being the “saviors” to the Red Sox rotation (combined 7 – 7 record with a 5.30 era, averaging just 5.3 innings per start).
What they’d have to give up: Like I said earlier, any team that makes a trade for Roy Halladay is going to have to suffer with giving up pieces they really cherish. Wave goodbye to 24 year old Clay Buchholz who already has a no hitter under his belt. Also, bid adieu to 22 year old flame-throwing Michael Bowden, who has posted a 3.13 era at triple-a Pawtucket this season. You can also rest assured that the Blue Jays would request 21 year old Lars Anderson. After those three must haves, the Jays would want a few of their lesser prospects like short stop Argenias Diaz and left fielder Ryan Kalish. That’s a steep price to pay for 18 months of a 32 year old starting pitcher.
Why they won’t: The question marks at the back end of the Red Sox rotation aren’t nearly as important as their offensive struggles. The Red Sox desperately need to add another bat to their lineup. Dustin Pedroia, reigning American League MVP has seen his power numbers drop by nearly 60% since last season. There hasn’t been a power outage that bad since the New York City blackout of 1977. David Ortiz is still hovering around the .220 mark. Right fielder J.D. Drew is hitting .239, catcher Jason Varitek’s average is down to .234, it goes on and on. Jason Bay, who carried the Red Sox for the first 2 months of the season, has gone into tailspin over the past 4 weeks, batting just .184 with 2 home runs. Even Grizzly Adams himself, Kevin Youkilis is only batting in the low .260’s over the past 6 weeks. They. Need. Help.
Odds of a Halladay trade: 20 to 1
What will likely happen: The Red Sox don’t pull the trigger on any Roy Halladay deals and instead you’ll see them acquire a Nick Johnson, Aubrey Huff-esque player to provide insurance to their aging and meandering offense.
3. St. Louis Cardinals
Why they will: The Cardinals have a good team, not a great team. They are currently leading the National League Central with a 2 game lead over the Chicago Cubs. Adding Roy Halladay would put them far and above any other team in their division and would put them ahead of the Dodgers as the favorite’s in the National League. Cardinals General Manager John Mozeliak has already shown he isn’t afraid to make a trade, with his recent acquisition of Mark Derosa, which cost the Cardinals a valuable set-up man from their bullpen. No team in baseball would be able to beat Halladay, Carpenter, Wainwright in a 7 game series. That’s as good as you can find. Don’t forget to factor in the success that Kyle Lohse and Joel Piniero have seen this season as well. The Cardinals, unlike the Yankees or the Red Sox, don’t have the same long-term window of sustained success. If they think they can win the World Series if they make this trade, they will do it, plain and simple.
What they’d have to give up: The Blue Jays want an impact player in return, kiss Colby Rasmus goodbye. Outside of Albert Pujols and Ryan Ludwick, Rasmus has been an absolute offensive beast for them. Having a terrific rookie season at the age of 22, Rasmus has hit .269 with 11 home runs and 40 extra base hits. He’s been good and will only get better. He’ll blossom into a 30+ home run guy within 2 seasons. So, try stomaching that loss when he’s playing left field for Toronto. The Blue Jays would also want a top prospect infielder, preferably a third baseman, but Brett Wallace and his .302 average at triple-a will do just fine. You can’t get Roy Halladay with just 2 players though, so you can add in reliever Jason Motte, 22-year old right hander Lance Lynn (9 – 2, 3.50 era) and Scott Gorgen (4 – 6, 3.40 era). Just be happy they wouldn’t ask for catching prospect Bryan Anderson as well, although I wouldn’t put it past them.
Why they won’t: You’d be adding a top-tier pitcher to combine with Adam Wainwright and Chris Carpenter, but you’d be losing your one of your only offensive pieces outside of Albert Pujols in doing so. Sure, they’d only let up 3 runs a game, but you’d be relying on Pujols to score you 4. The Cardinals would love to add Halladay, but I think the asking price of the Blue Jays is too steep even for the Cardinals to part with, despite the undeniable difference he would make. Their team, as it stands right now, is more than capable of winning their division, as well as putting up a valiant fight with the Phillies or Dodgers for the National League Pennant. Every championship team wins with strong starting pitching and a good bullpen. The Cardinals have 2 of the best starters in the National League in Adam Wainwright and Chris Carpenter and their closer Ryan Franklin has a 0.76 era. Check and mate.
Odds of a Halladay trade: 12 to 1
What will likely happen: The Cardinals stand pat on the Roy Halladay front and instead trade for Jon Garland or Doug Davis of the Diamondbacks. Don’t sleep on them making a moderate splash in the trade market and see them target Indians lefty Cliff Lee, either.
2. New York Yankees
Why they will: Chien-Ming Wang is likely out for the rest of the season and had a 1 – 6 record prior to his injury. Andy Pettitte and Joba Chamberlain (8 – 5, 5 – 2 respectively) have been off and on with their level of consistencies throughout the season. The Yankees are heavily relying on either Sergio Mitre or (if they go this route again) Alfredo Aceves to replace Wang in the rotation. They currently sit tied for the American League East with the Boston Red Sox and are in prime position to make a run at not only the Pennant, but a World Series run as well. Given the fact that the core of the Yankees over the last decade (Jeter, Posada, Pettitte, Rivera) is seeing their respective careers near the end, the Yankees may see this as their best shot to get a ring.
What they’d have to give up: Well Yankee fans, this is where it hurts. Right now, just look at a picture of either Joba Chamberlain or Phil Hughes wearing a Yankee uniform, because it’d be the last time you’d see one of them donning it. You can also bet they’d have to part with one of Jesus Montero (19 years old, the next Miguel Cabrera…next season) and Austin Jackson (tremendous upside, could be a Torri Hunter type center fielder). Then you have to also part ways with serviceable prospects, in the lines of 21 year old Zach McAllister who is shooting his way through the organization or catcher Austin Romine. The odds of having to give up a Mark Melancon or a David Robertson is also increasingly likely too. Is it worth it?
Why they won’t: It goes against the way Brian Cashman does business. He doesn’t make short sighted moves at the drop of a hat, just because there’s a pressing need right away. When an injury (Wang) or inconsistencies (Joba/Pettitte) happen, Cashman always finds a low-cost solution in-season. You rarely see him pull the plug on a blockbuster trade, it’s not the way his mind operates. Even with Wang injured and the Yankees relying on an unknown (Sergio Mitre) to provide them with much needed support, I don’t see Cashman changing his way of doing business. He won’t strip the farm system of his best prospects for a season and a half of Roy Halladay. Price is too steep.
Odds of a Halladay Trade: 9 to 1
What will likely happen: With Brian Cashman’s newfound mantra of retaining prospects who show tremendous upside, Jesus Montero, et al won’t be dealt. The Yankees will pull the trigger on a dealing a low level prospect to acquire a Doug Davis or Ian Snell type pitcher who is a low risk, high reward. It wouldn’t surprise me one bit to see them sign free agent Mark Mulder (who is nearly fully recovered from various shoulder injuries) or former Yankee Orlando “El Duque” Hernandez (who was recently released by the Texas Rangers).
1. Philadelphia Phillies
Why they will: The Phillies won the World Series last year, if they added Roy Halladay this season, watch out. They would be the favorites this year and next to win the World
Series and would have the opportunity to have a mini-dynasty. The Phillies are in prime position to run away with the National League East and challenge the Dodgers as the best team in the National League. Even though they’re in first place, their starting rotation could use the improvement. Their #2 starter Brett Myers is out for the rest of the season with a hip injury, Antonio Bastardo who filled in for him is injured as well. Their ‘ace’ Cole Hamels is just 5 – 5 with a 4.72 era. Joe Blanton and Jamie Moyer, ( a combined 15 – 10, with a 5.01 era) haven’t been overly dominant or consistent at any point this season. If not for the emergence as J.A. Happ (7 – 0, 2.68 era), the Phillies would not be in the position that they are. They have won 9 in a row and have been the best road team in baseball, even with their rotational issues. Roy Halladay would absolutely put this team over the top.
What they’d have to give up: The price would be steep, but the Phillies certainly have the pieces and the depth of their farm system to sustain the losses they would incur. Start right off the bat with giving up 23 year old outfielder Michael Taylor and his .325 average and 16 home runs in the minor leagues. Everybody touts Jason Donald as being a top short stop prospect for Philadelphia, that they aren’t willing to part with. Frankly, I’ve seen the kid play in the minors, he’s nothing special. If Toronto wants him, give him up. He’s got absolutely no range and a swing that has more holes than Swiss cheese. He’ll be a forgotten prospect, before he’s even a decent major leaguer. The Phillies could get away with not giving up Taylor if they would be wiling to part with 22 year old highly touted prospect Carlos Carracco ( 6 – 8, 4.97) or 21 year old Kyle Drabek (9 – 2, 2.83). After giving up at least 2 of those 4 individuals, the Phillies would need to add in second and third tier prospects to get the deal done, like John Mayberry Jr., Yohan Flande and Joe Savery.
Why they won’t: I would really like to say that the Phillies will land Halladay. Frankly, a week ago, I would have said “there’s no doubt in my mind.” But, with the Phillies having won 9 in a row and opened up a comfortable lead in the NL East, I don’t see the pressing need for it anymore. They won the World Series last year with roughly the same team, they can do it again.
Odds of a Halladay trade: 4 to 1
What will likely happen: Halladay doesn’t end up in Philly by the trade deadline. They run the gambit with Pedro Martinez and stay as they’re currently assembled.
Call me crazy, but I think Roy Halladay stays put. I can just as easily be dead wrong with everything I laid out and analyzed and Halladay could be pitching for someone like the Houston Astros by dinner time. But, based on everything I know, have read, my opinion and just the way the standings are starting to shape up, Halladay stays put at the deadline.
But, he won’t stay in Toronto for long. He’ll be gone in the off-season. And I’ll put all my money in the basket and say he gets traded to the Philadelphia Phillies, for roughly the same package I outlined previously and signs a 5 year, $90 million contract extension.
Am I wrong? Probably. But, if I’m right? There’s no telling how large my ego will grow to from this point forward!
Back at it soon with another edition of “who gets traded at the deadline!”
Series and would have the opportunity to have a mini-dynasty. The Phillies are in prime position to run away with the National League East and challenge the Dodgers as the best team in the National League. Even though they’re in first place, their starting rotation could use the improvement. Their #2 starter Brett Myers is out for the rest of the season with a hip injury, Antonio Bastardo who filled in for him is injured as well. Their ‘ace’ Cole Hamels is just 5 – 5 with a 4.72 era. Joe Blanton and Jamie Moyer, ( a combined 15 – 10, with a 5.01 era) haven’t been overly dominant or consistent at any point this season. If not for the emergence as J.A. Happ (7 – 0, 2.68 era), the Phillies would not be in the position that they are. They have won 9 in a row and have been the best road team in baseball, even with their rotational issues. Roy Halladay would absolutely put this team over the top.
What they’d have to give up: The price would be steep, but the Phillies certainly have the pieces and the depth of their farm system to sustain the losses they would incur. Start right off the bat with giving up 23 year old outfielder Michael Taylor and his .325 average and 16 home runs in the minor leagues. Everybody touts Jason Donald as being a top short stop prospect for Philadelphia, that they aren’t willing to part with. Frankly, I’ve seen the kid play in the minors, he’s nothing special. If Toronto wants him, give him up. He’s got absolutely no range and a swing that has more holes than Swiss cheese. He’ll be a forgotten prospect, before he’s even a decent major leaguer. The Phillies could get away with not giving up Taylor if they would be wiling to part with 22 year old highly touted prospect Carlos Carracco ( 6 – 8, 4.97) or 21 year old Kyle Drabek (9 – 2, 2.83). After giving up at least 2 of those 4 individuals, the Phillies would need to add in second and third tier prospects to get the deal done, like John Mayberry Jr., Yohan Flande and Joe Savery.
Why they won’t: I would really like to say that the Phillies will land Halladay. Frankly, a week ago, I would have said “there’s no doubt in my mind.” But, with the Phillies having won 9 in a row and opened up a comfortable lead in the NL East, I don’t see the pressing need for it anymore. They won the World Series last year with roughly the same team, they can do it again.
Odds of a Halladay trade: 4 to 1
What will likely happen: Halladay doesn’t end up in Philly by the trade deadline. They run the gambit with Pedro Martinez and stay as they’re currently assembled.
Where Roy Halladay Ends Up
Call me crazy, but I think Roy Halladay stays put. I can just as easily be dead wrong with everything I laid out and analyzed and Halladay could be pitching for someone like the Houston Astros by dinner time. But, based on everything I know, have read, my opinion and just the way the standings are starting to shape up, Halladay stays put at the deadline.
But, he won’t stay in Toronto for long. He’ll be gone in the off-season. And I’ll put all my money in the basket and say he gets traded to the Philadelphia Phillies, for roughly the same package I outlined previously and signs a 5 year, $90 million contract extension.
Am I wrong? Probably. But, if I’m right? There’s no telling how large my ego will grow to from this point forward!
Back at it soon with another edition of “who gets traded at the deadline!”
Until next time…
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