After the latest failure from the Yankees starting rotation, I decided it would be a good idea to delve deeper into not only the rotation's biggest question mark, but their biggest cause for concern.
While Hiroki Kuroda is currently the title-holder for
lowest ERA on the starting pitching staff at 4.38 (and we know how I feel about him), Ivan Nova the Yankees #2 starter
who won 16 games in 2011 currently has the second lowest earned run average at
5.18, after allowing 6 runs and 11 hits in his last start against Detroit.
The Yankees #1 starter and ace, CC Sabathia is
sporting an ERA north of 5 as well, but, he’s the least of the Yankees
concerns. Barring an unforeseen injury, Sabathia will likely pitch to the
numbers on the back of his baseball card and win 15 – 20 games and have an era
in the 3’s.
The
Yankees #5 starter (soon to be replaced
by David Phelps) Garcia would be considered
by many to be a huge concern by many Yankee fans, but any issue regarding
Garcia will finally be seeing its ultimate solution soon enough. After seeing
his ERA balloon up to an unsightly 12.51 and failing to make it out of the 2nd
inning on Saturday afternoon (his 2nd
consecutive start failing to do so), Garcia will likely find himself on the
outside of the rotation looking in, in the very near future. The option to
replace Garcia as I hypothesized moments ago is obviously David Phelps. For at
least one turn of the rotation I could see Phelps being handed the ball and
allowing the Yankees to put Garcia on the disabled list, designate him for
assignment or give Larry Rothschild time to tinker with Garcia’s mechanics in
hopes of creating temporary repairs on a skill-set that is obviously damaged. David
Phelps has pitched very well as the long-man in the bullpen, often spinning
together consistent scoreless innings, while pumping the zone full of strikes
and definitely deserves a shot. It’s anyone’s guess as to what exactly Phelps
could add to the Yankee rotation, but it sure can’t be any worse than what
Garcia has given them.
If Garcia and his deteriorating talent set isn’t the
deep-seated issue for the Yankees rotation, then what is? Well, their biggest
question and biggest cause for concern are both one in the same;
Philip Joseph Hughes.
It’s hard to imagine the man who was rated in Baseball America as the Yankees #1
prospect in 2006 and “arguably the best pitching prospect in the minors”, with
projections of being a future #1 starter has seen so many questions raised
about not only his ability, but his future as a starting pitcher.
Hughes has been in the Yankees rotation off an on for
much of the past 5 seasons. Over that time, he has seen some flashes of sheer
brilliance and delighted Yankee fans with dreams of Cy Young Awards to come.
Let’s take a look back at some of those finer moments
that dazzled the imaginations of fans and cynics alike:
On May 1, 2007, Hughes took the mound in Arlington, Texas
to take on the Rangers. On that day, his fastball had late life, his
knuckle-curveball was dipping in and out of the zone with tremendous ease and
most importantly, the Rangers offense was baffled. Hughes was un-hittable on
that day. I remember watching that game in my dorm room with my roommate (@MattLorenzo follow him on Twitter) and
being on the edge of our seats with every pitch. The look in Hughes’ eye, the uneasiness
of the Rangers hitters, he was going to do it. There wasn’t a doubt in anyone’s
mind. Hughes was on the verge of joining an elite group of men. Then, the worst
happened, on a 0-2 pitch to Mark Teixeira; Hughes attempted to drop in a 1 to 7
curveball and pulled his left hamstring. His day was over, the dream of a no
hitter vanished. 6 1/3 innings, 0 hits,
0 runs and 6 strikeouts is the only thing Hughes took from that game, other
than the thoughts of “what if.”
In
2008, Hughes didn’t win a single start, had an ERA near 7 and battled various
injuries throughout the year, but another sign of greatness emerged during the
last week of a lost season. On September 24, 2008, Hughes dazzled the Toronto
Blue Jays for 8 innings of 5 hit baseball.
He may not have gotten a win that day, but Hughes left Toronto shaking their heads.
In
2009, Hughes found himself to be a key component in the bullpen and the bridge
to Mariano Rivera. But, his success in the bullpen aside, Hughes started 7
games early in the season. While his starting numbers weren’t overly impressive
(3-2, 5.45ERA) once again, a glimpse
of what may be occurred on May 25. Against his old foes the Rangers, just over
2 years since his near no hitter, Hughes shined bright throwing 8 innings and
allowed no runs, en route to a dominant victory.
In 2010
it seemed like Phil Hughes had officially arrived. On April 21, Hughes carried
a no-hitter into the eighth inning against the Oakland Athletics before
allowing a leadoff single to Eric Chavez, he would face two more hitters prior
to being relieved, having struck out a career-high 10 batters. Hughes strung
together two 5 game winning streaks in 2010, paving the way for his first
career all-star selection and a career high 18 wins. But, the good vibes from
his season were marred by his struggles during the 2nd half of the
season and his ERA steadily rising throughout the summer months.
The
2011 season started with high hopes of Hughes being able to replicate his
previous season’s success and even take a few more steps further by being able
to pitch further into games. Hughes began the season as the third starter, but
suffered from a dip in velocity. His fastball averaged only 89 mph and peaked
at 92 mph, compared to his usual range of 92-95 mph. After opening the season 0
– 1 with a 13.94 ERA, Hughes was placed on the disabled list, with what the
Yankees described as “arm fatigue”
After
missing nearly 3 months, he returned on July 6, pitching 5 innings in a loss to
the Cleveland Indians. Only 4 weeks later, Hughes turned in his best (and really only) positive pitching
performance of the year, turning back the clock like it was 2010, throwing 6
innings of shutout ball in a rain shortened game against the White Sox.
Being a
starting pitcher at the Major League level for 5 years is not a small sample
size. While there have been flashes of a future ace and classic performances on
the mound, there has also been a countless number of poor effort and sub-par
results. Since 2007, Hughes has shown inability to put hitters away and an
overall failure to consistently challenge batters, which has caused high pitch
counts, short outings and doubts about his long-term value.
In his
career at the Major League level in the Yankees rotation, Hughes has been the
starting pitcher for 75 games. In those 75 games, Hughes has amassed 32 wins
and 24 losses, with an ERA of 4.97, in 405 1/3 innings. So, throughout his career Hughes has only averaged 5 1/3 innings per start and over 90
pitches. That speaks volumes to the type of pitcher Hughes is. Even in his
all-star season of 2010, Hughes per start average was only 6 innings and 103 pitches.
In contrast, during Hughes worst season statistically (in 2011), he averaged 5 1/3 innings and 87 pitches per start. One
thing that has remained a constant in his career is the difficulty of keeping
his pitch count down and working deeper into the ball game.
While
Hughes has occasionally dazzled opposing teams with terrific stuff, more often
than not, he’s been a disappointment. Every start seems to have the same script
for him. He’ll get ahead of hitters 0-2 or 1-2 and before you blink your eyes,
the count is 3-2 and the batter is fouling off pitch after pitch, and Hughes is
unable to put them away. He’ll string together 3 or 4 good innings and then
have that 1 inning where everything falls apart and he allows a handful of runs
and is out of the game before the 6th inning is completed. It’s
happened THIRTY NINE times in his
career. Thirty nine times (out of his 75
starts) Hughes has failed to make it past 6 innings. That is not a good
sign from someone who was almost traded for Johan Santana. That’s more reminiscent
of a Quadruple-A player in the makings (a
player a little better than triple-a, but not good enough for the Major
Leagues).
Even
though Hughes is only 25 years old and people will come to his defense saying
he’s young and just entering the prime of his career, the cause for concern is
evident. Age aside, being in the major leagues for 5 seasons and still having
the same issues and being unable to figure them out, is a tell tale sign of
what is to come. If after 5 years a pitcher is unable to make adjustments and
learn from past tribulations, the odds of him doing so become minute.
I would
ask that the real Phil Hughes please stand up, but, it seems that he already
has.
And
with that being said, I’d ask that he please take a seat at the end of the
bench and start cheering on his replacement;
Mr.
Pettitte
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